Adding recognition of Crimea as part of Russia to negotiations makes no sense and suggests ulterior motives.
Michael McFaul
April 23, 2025
McFaul’s World
For more than three decades, the United States has supported democratic Ukraine. That was true in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union; in 2004 during Ukraine’s Orange Revolution; in 2013-14 during Ukraine’s Revolution of Dignity and Putin’s first invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea; and again in 2022, after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In the war between democratic Ukraine and autocratic Russia, there was never any ambiguity about which side the United States supported, until Trump.
In his first term, President Trump never expressed much enthusiasm about Ukraine, even if members of his administration did. After all, it was during the first Trump administration that the United States delivered the first shipment of anti-tank Javelin missiles. In his second term, however, Trump turned hard against Ukraine and for Russia. To his credit, Trump and his new team have tried to end the war in Ukraine. I applaud that effort. They have engaged in negotiations with Russian and Ukrainian officials, including taking the controversial (but necessary) step of talking directly to Putin and his team. But as these negotiations unfold, it is becoming increasingly clear that Trump and his team are no longer supporters of Ukraine and are not acting as honest brokers. Instead, their words and actions support Putin. They are acting like Putin’s agents, trying to compel Ukraine to surrender, rather than mediate an outcome in which both sides must compromise to get a deal on a ceasefire. (A permanent end to the war still seems very far away.)
For Putin, all that Trump and his team have offered are carrots. Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Lavrov restored high-level bilateral relations at a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s team also signaled that they would block Ukraine’s membership in NATO. They have hinted at their intention to lift sanctions on Russia. Trump and his team have ended all funding for Russian civil society and independent media operating in exile, as well as Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, which produce content for Russian audiences (though the courts have frozen some of these actions). Shockingly, Trump instructed his diplomats at the United Nations to vote against resolutions criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, putting the United States on the same side as Russia, Belarus, North Korea, and a handful of other rogue states. Even the People’s Republic of China voted to abstain on these resolutions. Most importantly to Putin, the Trump administration has made clear that it will accept Russia’s occupation of parts of Ukraine. Most recently, Trump added a new major concession: US recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.
Why Trump offered this latest concession is hard for me to understand. Did Putin ask Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, for it? Did Putin ask for this concession because he had nothing left on his list to ask for? And why did Trump agree to it? After all, anyone with any knowledge of Ukrainian domestic politics knows that debates about the recognition of Russia’s claims over Crimea would only exacerbate tensions and delay negotiations. Is that the intention? What American national interest is advanced by recognizing Crimea as part of Russia? The downsides are clear to me: (1) It is a reputational hit to the US in the world; (2) Legitimizes use of force for annexation and encourages others to do so (think Taiwan); (3) Fosters division among our allies (a gift to Putin); (4) Fosters division within American society (gift to Putin and Xi); and (5) Alienates Ukrainians. I hope that Trump is still serious about trying to negotiate a ceasefire. I fear he is looking for an excuse to quit the negotiations, blame Zelenskyy for not accepting the American proposal, and thereby deliver another win for Putin.
For Zelenskyy, after all, Trump and his team have offered almost only sticks. They have episodically suspended military assistance and intelligence cooperation. They have signaled no willingness whatsoever to provide future military aid after the current package, approved by Biden, runs out. They compelled Ukraine to sign an investment agreement that is very beneficial to the United States. During an Oval Office meeting, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance humiliated Zelenskyy with cameras rolling. Trump’s team has been pressuring Ukrainians to recognize Putin’s territorial gains in this war. But then, shockingly, Trump’s diplomats have asked Zelenskyy to go a step further and recognize Crimea as a part of Russia or at least bless the American decision to do so.
Zelenskyy said in public that he will not do so. I don’t think he can do so. It would be political suicide because Ukrainian society would never go along with such a decision. Putin knows that, too, which is maybe why he asked for this concession in the first place. But does Trump and his team understand that Zelenskyy could never agree to such a demand? If they do not understand this obvious fact, it underscores my concern about having someone as inexperienced as Witkoff involved in these negotiations. But if they do understand it, then I am even more worried. It means that Trump and his team are looking for an excuse to walk away from these negotiations, throw the Ukrainians under the bus, and get on with their more desired objective of developing ties with Putin.
I hope I’m wrong. As Rachel Maddow would say, “watch this space.”
Michael McFaul is Director at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, the Ken Olivier and Angela Nomellini Professor of International Studies in the Department of Political Science, and the Peter and Helen Bing Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution. He joined the Stanford faculty in 1995. Dr. McFaul also is as an International Affairs Analyst for NBC News.. He served for five years in the Obama administration, first as Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for Russian and Eurasian Affairs at the National Security Council at the White House (2009-2012), and then as U.S. Ambassador to the Russian Federation (2012-2014). He has authored several books, most recently the New York Times bestseller From Cold War to
Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia. Earlier books include Advancing Democracy Abroad: Why We Should, How We Can; Transitions To Democracy: A Comparative Perspective (eds. with Kathryn Stoner); Power and Purpose: American Policy toward Russia after the Cold War (with James Goldgeier); and Russia’s Unfinished Revolution: Political Change from Gorbachev to Putin. His current research interests include American foreign policy, great power relations, and the relationship between democracy and development. Dr. McFaul was born and raised in Montana. He received his B.A. in International Relations and Slavic Languages and his M.A. in Soviet and East European Studies from Stanford University in 1986. As a Rhodes Scholar, he completed his D. Phil. in International Relations at Oxford University in 1991.