There is a method behind their destructive madness
Shankar Narayan
May 20, 2024
“Russia cannot defeat Ukraine or the West — and will likely lose — if the West mobilizes its resources to resist the Kremlin. The West’s existing and latent capability dwarfs that of Russia. The combined gross domestic product (GDP) of NATO countries, non-NATO European Union states, and our Asian allies is over $63 trillion. The Russian GDP is on the close order of $1.9 trillion. Iran and North Korea add little in terms of materiel support. China is enabling Russia, but it is not mobilized on behalf of Russia and is unlikely to do so.
If we lean in and surge, Russia loses.
The notion that the war is unwinnable because of Russia’s dominance is a Russian information operation, which gives us a glimpse of the Kremlin’s real strategy and only real hope of success. The Kremlin must get the United States to the sidelines, allowing Russia to fight Ukraine in isolation and then proceed to Moscow’s next targets, which Russia will also seek to isolate. The Kremlin needs the United States to choose inaction and embrace the false inevitability that Russia will prevail in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin’s center of gravity is his ability to shape the will and decisions of the West, Ukraine, and Russia itself.
The Russian strategy that matters most, therefore, is not Moscow’s warfighting strategy, but rather the Kremlin’s strategy to cause us to see the world as it wishes us to see it and make decisions in that Kremlin-generated alternative reality that will allow Russia to win in the real world,” wrote ISW’s Nataliya Bugayova, Frederick W. Kagan and Kateryna Stepanenko.
There is a stark reality: Russia cannot win the war on its own. The Kremlin’s only viable path to victory hinges on deterring the West from supporting Ukraine and thwarting Russia. This strategic imperative has persisted for two years, growing even more critical amidst Russia’s rapidly deteriorating internal situation.
No, the Russian Economy is not going to collapse few days from now
I don’t think the economy is going to collapse immediately and the war will end because of it. But they are getting squeezed in multiple directions. The cushion they had at the start of the war is getting depleted at an extremely fast rate.
The liquid part of Russia’s National Wealth Fund (NWF) has more than halved, falling by $58 billion since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as the government used the money to finance its budget deficit and support state-owned companies.
The NWF, a rainy-day fund of accumulated energy revenues, held $55 billion, or 2.7% of gross domestic product (GDP), as of Feb. 1, 2024, down from $112.7 billion, or 6.6% of GDP, as of Feb. 1, 2022, according to finance ministry data.
Can Putin continue? Of-course he can.
But can he continue forever? Of-course he cannot.
In the first year of the war, in 2022, the Russian army lost 400 soldiers per day. In 2023, that number increased to 658 per day. In the first three months of 2024, it has risen sharply to 913 per day.
There are plenty of reasons why the number of losses suffered by the Russian army would continue to increase at a sharp rate.
After observing the Russian recruitment strategy and battlefield tactics, I reached the conclusion that the Russian army will incur significantly greater losses in 2024 compared to last year.
I documented my findings in a story published on January 1, 2024
“The quality of recruits this year will be notably inferior to the previous year’s, and the recruits for the upcoming year will be even less capable than the current batch. This pattern is unavoidable. Each new iteration of the Russian military is bound to be less trained, less equipped, and less motivated to engage in combat. The accelerated attrition rates will intensify the strain on recruitment efforts”. And then added this: I expect substantial increase in Russian casualties in 2024.
Compared to the average losses in 2023, Russia’s daily losses have increased by a massive 38% in the first three months of 2024
Sounds substantial isn’ it. It is.
On December 21, Major General Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), stated that Russian forces are recruiting 1,000 to 1,200 new personnel daily to compensate for losses in Ukraine. He further stated that most of these new recruits are promptly sent to the front lines.
The Russians already have a recruitment system in place capable of enlisting thousand men a day to fight in Ukraine. Putin has bolstered this clandestine recruitment effort by issuing a decree to conscript 150,000 individuals into the military. This decree was issued at the end of March 2024.
But, when you recruit 1000 and you lose 1000, you are at the breakeven. This means if you hit a patch of drought, you are going to be in trouble. That’s problem number two.
If you’re losing 30,000 soldiers every month, you’ll lose 360,000 this year. However, the problem arises when you incur such high casualties. The loss rate of 913 soldiers per day in March 2024 is unlikely to remain at 913 per day by December 2024. It could easily see a double-digit increase, perhaps exceeding 1,200.
I believe Russia will be forced to recruit atleast 720,000 men this year if they want to sustain a force of 360,000 by December 31, 2024. (factors influencing the accelerated rate of loss: deaths due to poor training, increase in Ukraine’s ground combat power and Putin’s plan to go for broke before US Presidential elections)
It will truly hinge on the enhancement of Ukraine’s combat prowess from this point forward. The stronger they grow, the greater the losses they can inflict. Russia has no choice but to mobilize at least one million working-age, reasonably healthy men from its workforce to fight in Ukraine over the next 12 months.
This is where the third problem arises.
Russia faced a shortage of five million workers in 2023. Inflation remains high, and Putin cannot halt the injection of money into the economy. Consequently, Russia must continue to navigate through inflation, wage increases due to worker shortages, and the expansion of its deficits. “Production in Russia is being restrained by the shortage of workers, not by a lack of finances”, Elvira Nabiullina, the head of Russia’s central bank, said earlier today.
Well, that’s sufficient. She may continue to offer various explanations, but the fundamental issue, the shortage of workers, will persist. Putin cannot indefinitely cover the costs of that gap. Putin does not have a lot of room to keep going. This could be one of the reasons why the Kremlin might choose to launch one major surge: to throw everything they have at Ukraine for one last chance. It’s a ‘do or die soon’ moment.
It might feel strange or incorrect, but it actually makes sense. This is a scapegoat society; they always find someone to blame and cast them aside. For centuries, this society has been governed by dictators. However, it has also been unforgiving to any ruler who loses a war. If Putin loses, he will become the scapegoat. Whether it’s the people or those working closely with Putin who will hold him accountable, no one knows. But somewhere, after the loss, he will be blamed and ousted.
This phenomenon is not unique to Russia. A dictator who does not instill fear is no dictator at all. A dictator who is defeated by a neighboring country has nothing to be feared of.
So, What will Putin do
- If he realizes that the worker shortage is escalating so sharply that inflation might deplete the reserves next year?
- If he has seen the report stating that Soviet-era ammunition storage will be depleted sometime next year?
- If he also received the report that the collective artillery production of the West will exceed 2 million next year?
- If he is also aware that Ukraine may start manufacturing 2 million drones by the end of this year?
It makes a lot of sense to go all in.
The sooner, the better.
Ukrainian officials continue to assert that Russia is planning a major offensive in the summer. While I lack the means to observe the mobilization of Russian reserves within the occupied
territory, from a logical standpoint, it does make sense for Putin to go all in, and it would be preferable for him to do so sooner rather than later.
What I fail to comprehend is why Russia doesn’t opt to take a pause, allow its reserves to replenish, and then launch an attack. Over the last two weeks, the intensity of their attacks has increased. Not a good idea, if they are aiming for a short burst and then cry for peace.
The escalation is incoming
Putin is going to escalate the destruction, and he may very well attempt to do so within a short timeframe. It all becomes clear now. His plan involves calling for a ceasefire in the second half of 2024, during what the French administration refers to as the “grey zone,” after part of Europe’s elections and as the United States enters the final strecth of its presidential election.
The strategy is to intensify destruction, throw everything into the war in a mighty surge, and act as if there are endless resources to continue the conflict. However, in reality, every crack is straining to rupture at the seams.
Propaganda has been the Kremlin’s most effective tool. The conditions are favorable for it to work once again.
The West must tread carefully from here.
Putin will try his best to make them believe he has a runway stretching into the next century. However, the reality is that he has no runway beyond this year, and he may accelerate its depletion by throwing everything into the conflict.
Shankar Narayan is an immigrant, activist, long-distance son, teacher, and person of color living in America. I create voice to tell others’ stories and my own with the integrity and fire they deserve. My day job working to protect the civil liberties of America’s many underclasses is one way I move that work forward; my writing and teaching are another. My poetry explores identity, belonging, and power in a world where the body is flung across borders yet possesses unrivaled power to transcend them. I tell stories of mythology and technology, transformation and love. My upbringing informs my voice. I grew up around the world, experiencing change—sometimes cataclysmic—in societies as diverse as the USSR, the Maldives, India, Yugoslavia, Thailand, South Africa, and of course, the United States. I have worked in prisons on three continents, exchanging ideas with those incarcerated by their societies. I frequently interact with the architects of the technological revolution that is transforming all of our futures. I write to memorialize, to witness moments of beauty and terror, to connect with the divine, to bridge the chasm between my two homelands, and to survive the madness of the world. I hope to build a community that perseveres and even thrives.