January 16, 2024
DIANE FRANCIS
The world enters the fourth year of war in Ukraine, which Donald Trump promised he would end on January 20. But that promise has been punted for 100 days because his “strong man” persona hasn’t convinced Vladimir Putin to slow down and agree to talks. Trump now realizes there’s no stopping a former KGB agent who’s busy perpetrating a full-blown genocide. Unfortunately, this miscalculation and postponement has set back the “peace” process before it began. In this war, the only “strong man” is Russian, and he kills women and children, bombs hospitals and schools, and then sends waves of young men to certain death in “meat assaults” against Ukrainian artillery. He escalates a hybrid war against Europe, involving cyberattacks, assassinations, terrorism, corruption, and sabotage of underwater power lines, cables, and internet links designed to isolate the Baltic states. And yet, Europeans don’t admit they are also at war, as is Ukraine. However, according to military expert Phillips O’Brien, these are acts of war, particularly the cutting off of power to and from Estonia. “They are not invasions,” he wrote, “but the common thread is that Russia is using force to undermine a recognized country’s independence and its ability to fight back.”
Stopping Putin’s carnage in Eastern Europe won’t be easy. Trump’s hubris, as well as his disdain for Europe and NATO, impede the process. Wrote Robert Kagan in Atlantic Monthly: “It’s dangerous to believe your shtick. Trump seemed to think his election alone would be enough to convince Putin that it was time to cut a deal.”
Another impediment is that Trump’s legendary negotiating skills appear to be missing in action. He’s been handing out concessions before Putin has even agreed to sit down for peace talks. For example, he publicly stated that Ukraine wouldn’t be allowed to join NATO, that America would dole out less aid to Ukraine, and that former President Joe Biden should not have permitted Ukraine to use long-range American missiles to attack Russia. As Kagan observed: “Putin has simply pocketed all these concessions and offered nothing in return except a willingness to talk without preconditions.”
There are plenty of other mistaken assumptions about Putin among Western leaders and observers. Another common misconception is that Russia’s economic distress and widespread casualties may eventually convince Putin to stop fighting or, if they worsen, persuade him to step down. But Mikhail Zygar, an exiled Russian journalist, explained in a recent interview that Putin relishes the war and thrives on the dictatorial control he has. “He doesn’t want to end this war because he enjoys it. He controls the situation in the country. He can mobilize the country. He got rid of all the dissent. The stability of the state does not depend on the population’s wellbeing.” Putin’s calculus is different because he has a stranglehold on Russia.
Another misunderstanding about Putin is that even if he starts to lose, he will have no interest in negotiating for a partial victory because his objective is to eradicate Ukraine. Putin also aims to
tarnish Trump’s reputation and America’s role as the world’s policeman. He won’t kneel to pressure and has gamed the United Nations for decades. He has reaped fortunes for himself and his thugs and, atop it all, has divided and exhausted the West and its democracies. Trump may make all this worse. In a recent article, Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who resigned after the invasion of Ukraine, warned that Trump’s rhetoric about annexing Greenland and Canada could ultimately reduce support for Ukraine and destabilize other parts of the world. “It could force European U.S. allies to decide where to direct their not-so-abundant resources — to support Ukraine or to keep them for themselves, just in case.”
So, what can be done to end this? The consensus is that the best strategy is to escalate and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky recommends this, and European leaders have advised the Trump team that there will be no talks as long as Moscow continues to take territory. Fortunately, the good news is that sources say Trump has no intention of stopping the flow of weapons at this point. His National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz, publicly pushes Ukraine to boost its armed forces by lowering its conscription age from 27 to 25 to stabilize Ukraine’s front lines ahead of negotiations. “If Ukrainians have asked the whole world to be all in for democracy, we need them to be all in for democracy,” said Waltz. “And they have fought bravely and taken a noble and tough stand. But we need to see shortages addressed. This isn’t just about munitions, ammunition, or writing more cheques. It’s about stabilizing the front lines to enter a deal.”
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni said Trump won’t “abandon” Ukraine. After meeting Trump recently at his Mar-a-Lago resort, she said, “I don’t foresee a US disengagement,” adding that concrete security guarantees for Ukraine were essential to ensure future peace. “We all know that in the past, Russia has violated the agreements it has signed. Without security guarantees, we cannot have certainty that it will not happen again.”
Ukraine’s battered troops continue to hold their own along the Ukrainian frontline, and its forces destroy energy and military facilities inside Russia by deploying large numbers of missiles and drones. Also of strategic significance, Kyiv continues to repel counterattacks in Kursk, the chunk of Russia that Ukraine audaciously seized months ago. Its ongoing occupation is critical in future negotiations because Russia wants that territory back. Its capture bothers Putin.
But Ukraine cannot last forever, and Europe is suffering cyberattacks, assassinations, sabotage, and scams. There are now 10 NATO warships monitoring Russian oil tankers and ships in the Baltic Sea following attacks on energy and digital infrastructure. Finally, and for the first time, Kaja Kallas, former President of Estonia and now the European Union’s foreign policy chief, publicly held Russia directly responsible for all the undersea infrastructure damage caused in the Baltic Sea last week. “Sabotage in Europe has increased since Russia started the war against Ukraine. The recent sabotage attempts in the Baltic Sea are not random incidents. Rather, they are part of a coordinated effort to damage our digital and energy infrastructure.”
She called for sanctions, but this is war, and NATO should pre-emptively warn Russia that it will invoke its Article 5 collective defense in response to the next attack on European land, air, sea, or the Internet. Putin has meticulously avoided dropping bombs on NATO territory to prevent
counterattacks by NATO’s alliance of 32 nations. He has used surrogates to sabotage their vital infrastructure, but this must end. According to NATO’s articles, maritime attacks against any member constitute acts of war, as do strikes against critical infrastructure or ships at sea or port. A pre-emptive warning from NATO immediately will get Putin’s attention, and any Russian-sponsored assaults should be met with retaliatory ferocity against Moscow.
That will bring him to the table.