Diane Francis
March 6, 2025
On February 28, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky was thrown out of the White House after a shouting match with President Donald Trump and his Vice President concerning a minerals deal. It shocked the world that Trump would treat the leader of a heroic nation so shabbily while fawning and making concessions to Russia’s mass murdering President Vladimir Putin. Naturally, some speculated Trump was a KGB operative or Putin had “negatives” on him. However, Trump is transactional and believes in realpolitik, which is politics based on practical objectives rather than ideals. He has been applying pressure or giving concessions to force the two parties to negotiate. For instance, after ousting Zelensky, Trump stopped the arms flow to Ukraine on March 3. The next day, Zelensky sent a contrite letter to Trump which the President jubilantly read in his address that evening before Congress: “Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine, maintain its sovereignty and independence. Regarding the agreement on minerals and security, Ukraine is ready to sign it at any time.” While difficult for Ukraine to write, the good news is that the letter was also the Kremlin’s worst nightmare.
It’s interesting to note that the Russians are upset that Zelensky and Trump have mended the torn relationship. This is because Moscow has concentrated on extracting concessions from America, not stopping the fighting. According to a Russian quoted by The Moscow Times, “We [Russia] are valuable to Trump primarily in the context of solving a problem: the war in Ukraine. If that issue falls off the agenda, then the entire agenda is thrown into question — what else is there to talk about?”
Trump has done a reasonably good job as a mediator to set the table for talks, but his team is out of its depth when it comes to handling the dangerous and slippery Russians. The cardinal rule in negotiations is that the mediator (America in this case) must meet with each party separately, challenge each one with the arguments presented by their opponents, determine reasonable options or compromises, focus on interests rather than positions or criticisms, and objectively point out everyone’s shortcomings. For instance, during the dust-up in DC, Trump repeatedly told Zelensky, “You have no cards” – a reference to poker that meant he could not win and had no bargaining position. He has also publicly stated that Putin must end his “ridiculous war” against Ukraine, which is “destroying Russia”.
Russia knows that if it doesn’t negotiate, America will double sanctions and armaments to Ukraine. Ukraine was told it must sign the minerals deal and be prepared to give up the lands already lost because it cannot afford to wage the war any longer. It’s also a good guess that Germany and the European Union were told they “have no cards” and must provide peacekeeping troops to Ukraine or face more punitive American tariffs than the threatened 20% to 30%.
However, former Russian diplomat Boris Bondarev, who resigned from Russia’s diplomatic mission to the UN in Geneva in protest against the invasion, explained Putin’s extensive agenda beyond negotiating a truce. “Ukraine, territorial recognition, ‘demilitarization,’ ‘denazification’ — including elections that bring pro-Russian figures to power in Ukraine — and lifting sanctions. That’s the minimum that Putin would like to have.”
Worse, it appears that the Russians have “played” Trump by offering an enticing counter-proposal that has nothing to do with ending the war: A Grand Bargain between the two countries aimed at reordering the world. Russians have told Americans that if sanctions are lifted and Putin’s global standing can be regained, Moscow will do the following: a) decouple from China and help isolate Beijing; b) prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb and financing proxies that destabilize the Middle East, and c) stop meddling and disrupting Africa and join forces to develop its countries. On paper, this is a preposterous promise, but it appeals to Trump, who regards China as a bigger threat than Russia or any other country. A Russian source said: “The Americans will be strung along with talk about a potential reassessment of Moscow’s relationship with Beijing”. In addition, Russia has cluttered negotiations with many demands beyond the end of the war, such as Arctic joint ventures and research projects that allow it to tap into US technologies.
Trump wants a Grand Bargain. On February 12, Trump first raised the idea of Moscow playing a role in diplomacy with Tehran. “The United States and Iran should resolve all problems through negotiations,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov was quoted as saying. “[Moscow] is ready to do everything in its power to achieve this.” Then, on February 25 and not coincidentally, Trump came across with an enticement to please Russia’s oligarchs by launching a “gold card” visa that would be a path to U.S. citizenship and sold to anyone for $5 million. He heralded this innovation and said the new visa holders “will be wealthy and they’ll be successful, and they’ll be spending a lot of money and paying a lot of taxes and employing a lot of people, and we think it’s going to be extremely successful.
Such horse-trading with Russia is problematic because Moscow is two steps and centuries ahead of an American businessman like Trump. The Donald was a “sharp operator” who skirted legalities but operated in lawful jurisdictions, not anarchic circumstances. He’s also in a hurry and egotistical, so Putin courts him with flattery and makes promises galore. At the same time as the two try to rearrange the world, Ukraine gets the short end of the stick. For instance, after the fractious meeting with Zelensky, Trump halted all military assistance and intelligence-sharing with Ukraine other than information for “force protection” or protecting Ukrainian troops under attack. This “short pause” was designed to bring Ukraine to the table, and it did. On March 4, the Ukrainian president issued his statement, in which he called the quarrel “regrettable” and reaffirmed his commitment to work toward peace under Trump’s “strong leadership.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz called the statement a “good, positive first step.” Trump voiced appreciation for Zelensky’s words and mentioned the statement in his address to Congress. But as of March 5, the bans had still not been lifted. When asked why, Waltz said they will end once peace talks are scheduled and actually begin. “I think if we can nail down these negotiations and move towards them and put some confidence-building measures on the table,
then the president will take a hard look at lifting this pause. We must know that both sides are sincerely negotiating towards a partial, then permanent, peace.”
Meanwhile, Russia has continued to fight, and the situation places Ukraine in a Catch-22: No arms or shared intelligence will flow until Ukraine sits at the table, and it cannot sit at the table because Russia sabotages the talks and negotiation process. For instance, Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov claimed that Zelensky would be a problem in negotiations due to “unresolved nuances” — whatever that means. Russians also want Ukraine to hold elections to elect a new President, which is impossible during a war. Such delaying tactics help Russia make more gains on the battlefield because Ukraine is held back by weapons and intel bans. A CIA officer explained the significance. “There is no way to replace the capabilities that the US intelligence can provide from our European allies,” he told the BBC. “This will likely inspire Russia to push harder on their efforts to take more terrain from Ukraine and away from the negotiating table.”
Rookie blunders, carelessness, or both spell disaster for Ukrainians. It is naive for Trump to believe that Russia would double-cross its biggest drone supplier, Iran, or its biggest oil customer, China, or that it could be forced to do so. Trump may know how to pick up real estate bargains in Manhattan and negotiate terms, but transactional foreign policy doesn’t work in complicated, life-and-death situations. Lives are at stake, not mortgage payments, and every single day the war continues, thousands more die or are wounded. Trump and his team of Wall Streeters and political hacks are over their heads in dealing with a sociopathic, war criminal who plays to weaknesses, manipulates, and offers terms that he has absolutely no intention of honoring.
Trump is not a Russian sympathizer. He’s become a patsy.