December 16, 2024
DIANE FRANCIS
The shape of a deal that could end the war in Ukraine is being formed. President-elect Donald Trump set a deadline for a cease-fire for January 20, the day he’s to be inaugurated. So far, only Ukraine has shifted its position since his re-election to start talks, but Putin has said nothing. Worse, a Russian oligarch insulted the process, bluntly saying Russia won’t respond to any offer. But, on December 8, Trump’s tone suddenly shifted. He blamed Vladimir Putin for the war and placed the onus on him to bring about peace. He also referred to Putin’s humiliation in Syria on his Truth Social platform: “Russia abandoned and never should have protected him [Syria’s Bashar al-Assad] in the first place and lost interest because of a war in Ukraine that never should have started and `could go on forever.’” He further pointed out that Russia and Ukraine had suffered hundreds of thousands of dead and wounded troops, and Ukraine many civilians. He concluded by writing that the Ukrainian leader “would like to make a deal and stop the madness. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!”
Trump’s request that Putin stop fighting emphasized Russia’s devastating, Afghanistan-style retreat from Syria. It also happened after he met on December 7 with French President Emmanuel Macron and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky before the Notre Dame consecration ceremony in Paris. Five days before, on December 2, Zelensky had conceded that Ukraine’s military was not strong enough to retake all of its occupied territories and that diplomacy was needed. The Kyiv Independent concluded that Zelensky’s “recent comments show a willingness to defer the status of occupied territories in exchange for entry into NATO while not recognizing Russian occupation as legitimate.”
The issue of NATO is critical to any deal. Biden, European, and Ukrainian officials have explained to the Trump team that a ban on joining NATO or failing to put in place solid security guarantees would represent a significant triumph to Putin and amount to capitulation. It would create enormous problems going forward. Ukraine, the biggest and most resource-rich country in Europe, would be orphaned and unable to join the continent. Its future would be uncertain. Such isolation would guarantee its recapture by the Kremlin and result in a full-blown war against the European continent. (Fortunately, on December 5, three European nations—Germany, France, and Britain—promised to deploy peacekeeping forces inside Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire without NATO membership.)
Trump taunts Putin now, and the significance of Trump’s negative remarks about Putin’s ebbing power cannot be understated. For the first time, he described Russia as weak due to Syria and Ukraine, thus reducing its threat level and bargaining position. His critique is also at odds with Russian talking points, such as NATO causing the war and Ukraine being run by Nazis who had unjustly conquered Russian lands and people. Trump said the war should never have happened, and the world knows that Putin invaded without justification or provocation.
On December 12, NATO’s new Secretary General, former Netherlands Prime Minister Mark Rutte, issued a stern warning to Europeans and a call to arms regarding Moscow. The former Dutch prime minister reminded Europeans about Russia’s attacks on Georgia in 2008 and the 2014 then 2022 invasions in Ukraine. “How many more wake-up calls do we need? We should be profoundly concerned. I know I am,” he said. “Russia is preparing for a long-term confrontation. With Ukraine, and with us. It’s time to shift to a wartime mindset.”
Putin currently conducts, and has increased, a hybrid war against Europe. He militarily nibbles at its edges. The Kremlin is once again behind the trouble in Georgia, where people fill the streets in protest against a pro-Russian puppet. The Baltics batten down their hatches, and Serbia fends off destabilization. Poland fortifies its forces and borders. Romania succumbs to Russian electoral sabotage, and a new election is demanded. Moldova is a frozen conflict and host to Russian soldiers ready to pounce.
The current “hot” war by Russia is against Ukraine. Still, its hybrid war against Europe includes cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns, weaponization of migration, espionage activities, trade fraud, and worrisome increases in sabotage to infrastructure. “These attacks are not just isolated incidents. They are the result of a coordinated campaign to destabilize our societies and discourage us from supporting Ukraine,” said Rutte. “They circumvent our deterrence and bring the front line to our front doors.”
Rutte urged European industries to boost the production of defense systems and weaponry against drones and other new war tactics: “Freedom does not come for free” for the 1 billion people living in the Euro-Atlantic area. Europe’s GDP is larger than America’s, and Trump has served notice that Europe must pony up more. The NATO chief said: “If we don’t spend more together now to prevent war, we will pay a much, much, much higher price later to fight it. Not billions, but trillions of euros. That’s if we come out on top, and that’s if we win.”
NATO has been a staunch supporter of Ukraine and helped members funnel weapons, ammunition, and other support into the country. And Trump’s complaints that U.S. allies in NATO are not spending enough on defense have helped raise financial support among members. Rutte said Russia’s military spending would likely amount to 7 to 8% of its GDP (which is roughly $2 trillion) next year -– far more than any NATO ally except Poland or the United States –- while its defense industry churns out tanks, armored vehicles, and ammunition. Defense spending has risen sharply in Europe, with 23 allies expected to reach NATO’s target of putting 2% of its GDP (roughly $19.4 trillion) into their military budgets. But Rutte added: “I can tell you, we will need a lot more than 2%.”
Trump is no diplomat, general, or geopolitical expert, but he’s a savvy dealmaker and the most powerful man in the world. He smells weakness. By calling out Russia’s failures and vulnerabilities, he exposes that Putin has overreached. Trump’s hints that funding may be cut to NATO and/or Ukraine is sincere, but it is also a tactical gambit that has obtained more funds from the European governments and appeals to American taxpayers. Trump also has access to the actual numbers behind the war “investment”: Only 5% of the Pentagon budget has destroyed 50% of Russia’s army.
Now, the world witnesses Moscow’s exit from Syria, with its tail between its legs and humiliation reminiscent of its 1989 exit from Afghanistan. That debacle resulted in the collapse of the government and the dissolution of the Soviet Union into 15 independent countries. Syria and Ukraine are Putin’s “Afghanistan” and will hopefully accelerate the dissolution of the Russian Federation into many independent countries.
That would be a triumph for the world and mark the end of Europe’s last odious empire.