The invasion of Kursk could convince Ukraine’s allies that the war is winnable by some definition.
David Axe
December 29, 2024
Trench Art
In early August, a powerful Ukrainian force of a dozen or more battalions breached Russian defenses along the border between Ukraine and Kursk Oblast in western Russia. Advancing quickly the Ukrainians carved out what is now a 250-square-mile salient centered on the town of Sudzha.
The Ukrainians’ invasion of Kursk came at the cost of their defensive campaign in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk Oblast, and arguably made it possible for Russian forces to seize the fortress town of Vuhledar and also advance into the town of Kurakhove and toward the city of Pokrovsk, a critical transportation node.
It’s for that reason that one Ukrainian drone operator who has been fighting in Kursk Oblast—first attacking, now defending against a massive Russian counteroffensive—has always opposed the invasion. “While we lose so much ground in Donetsk area, I am asking myself what I am doing in Kursk area?” Kriegsforscher wrote in early November. “Since the first day of operation I was strongly against it. My opinion hasn’t changed.”
Better to hold in eastern Ukraine than to advance in western Russia, in Kriegsforscher’s estimate—even if the Ukrainian salient proves to be a valuable bargaining chip in any future ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
Others think differently. One argument is that Kursk is an attrition trap for the Russians, who have surged more than 50,000 troops reinforced by 12,000 North Koreans into Kursk to do battle with 20,000 Ukrainians. Russian and North Korean losses exceed Ukrainian casualties: the Russians have lost more than 500 vehicles in Kursk since August; the Ukrainians have lost around 375.
But the real value of the salient may be moral. “The symbolism of Ukraine’s Kursk operation goes well beyond its military significance,” Finnish analyst Joni Askola wrote. “A year after Ukraine’s unsuccessful summer offensive, it showed the world that front lines can shift and that Russia is vulnerable and can be defeated.”
Yes, there was a price in the east, Askola conceded. But “the symbolism of forcing Russia to fight on its own soil nearly three years into its full-scale invasion, along with Ukraine’s ability to surprise with a successful offensive, far outweighs the significance of any extra villages Russia may have captured in the east.”
When Ukraine launched its Kursk operation in August, it humiliated Russia and boosted Ukrainian morale. This came at a time when the world doubted Ukraine and overlooked its earlier successes following the failed summer counteroffensive.
Ukraine demonstrated to the world its ability to plan operations while maintaining strong operational security. It can still surprise Russia and even its allies.
Any confidence the Kursk op inspires in the capitols of Ukraine’s allies might end up mattering most. The incoming second administration of U.S. president-elect Donald Trump could reduce or even end U.S. aid to Ukraine, potentially shifting the burden of supporting Ukraine to European countries.
Those countries’ leaders must believe Ukraine can win—whatever “winning” actually means in the context of this war.
David Axe – Forbes Staff. Aerospace & Defense. He is a journalist, author and filmmaker based in Columbia, South Carolina. Axe founded the website War Is Boring in 2007 as a webcomic, and later developed it into a news blog. He enrolled at Furman University and earned a bachelor’s degree in history in 2000. Then he went to the University of Virginia to study medieval history before transferring to and graduating from the University of South Carolina with a master’s degree in fiction in 2004.