And so the war in Ukraine continues. There may be a settlement, a ceasefire or even a temporary Ukrainian victory, but Russian aggression in Ukraine will continue so long as an Epilogue can not be written on Russian imperialism. Russian aggression at first shortsighted glance may be against Ukrainians and the persecuted nationalities within the Russian Federation, but the repercussions are felt across the globe.
I recently wrote about the Pope of Rome appointing a Ukrainian bishop from Australia as a Cardinal of the Ecumenical Catholic Church to some degree demeaning the Ukrainian Catholic Church, its faithful and its Synod. I refer to it because to a large degree it manifests the reluctance of the Free World, and in this case even the Religious Free World to recognize and address tangibly a centuries old and ever contemporary scourge of evil known as the Russian Empire. Whatever the reason for this reluctance or passivity including economic gain or fear of a potential Armageddon, this passivity is what keeps the evil empire alive, if not flourishing.
American President Ronald Reagan coined the term “Evil Empire”. Unfortunately he had only a passing idea of what that meant historically. The Soviet Union was indeed evil but its worst atrocities had been equalled or even surpassed by Russia’s czarist regime and may be surpassed now by the successor to the USSR, the Russian Federation as the Russian Empire is referred to today. From Ivan the Terrible, to Peter I, to Josef Stalin to Vladimir Putin, all of these strongmen have common characteristics. In at least one case, that of Stalin who was ethnically Georgian, all were exposed to Russian culture, literature and even religion, always under state control. Stalin became a Russian. Dostoyevsky’s Roskolnikov was the resolute product of a culture which was and is a symbol of everything that is dark and wrong with human beings when exposed to a contagious disease known as imperialism.
While today there are many proposals, some even sincere, which have been made to end the current war, optimistic or not there is only one solution to Russian aggression. Complete victory for Ukraine on the battlefield is unfortunately wishful thinking. Many other factors are at play.
The only valid conclusion is that Russia ceases to be an aggressor/ but that can happen only when it stops being an empire. There is no reason to fool oneself. A contemporary Russian democrat, if I may employ an oxymoron, recently opined on what is needed: the formation of a truly federal state, based on a treaty among those regions who will include both Russian areas and non-Russian ones which may then decide to work together. Further this Russian democrat stressed that all these regions must be equal in status and have the right of exit, and they must be able to define their own borders instead of relying on Soviet ones.
For the benefit of the well meaning but awfully naive proponent of such a solution I will not expose her name or credentials except to credit or blame “Window on Eurasia – New Series” that published this insanity. I could not find a disclaimer on behalf of the publisher, but given the naivete (hopefully not intentional disinformation) this proposition is precisely what cannot be supported. This was the crux of the USSR as well as the Russian Federation. A treaty with Russians! What a concept. Ask the Ukrainians.
Ask the Chechens, the Tatars, the Kalmyks, the Bashkirs, the Buryats, the Sakhas, the Erzya, the Circassians and many others with the Russian Federation how successful in terms of national self-determination or even simple cultural freedom, that formula has proven to be. Non-Russians represent perhaps 30-40% of the Russian Federation in terms of population, but a majority of its territory. The non-Russians have no rights culturally or otherwise.
Another other part of this war temporary post script for purposes of a negotiated settlement is a very strong argument for the further enlargement of NATO. Stop playing games with Ukraine’s obvious qualifications and need for NATO membership. Currently the settlement considerations by the Russians appear to be a reward for Russian bad behaviour in the form of illegally begotten territory as well as Ukrainian forbearance from NATO membership.
An immediate invitation to NATO membership for Ukraine eliminates that negotiating issue and chip in Russia’s possession. While NATO countries are reluctant to send boots to free invaded Ukrainian territory, it is entirely within their power to offer Ukraine membership in NATO immediately. The result of such an invitation would not be World War 3, but an immediate diminution of the Russian bargaining position. Too bad President Biden does not understand.
In the long run even with a docile Russia (not Russian Federation aka Empire) within its own more or less Russian borders (whatever that may be), NATO must be enlarged further to prevent any possibility of future Russian aggression. Russians have to be weeded slowly like a drug addict from their imperialistic affliction. Unfortunately there are no drugs that may be beneficial, but fear is a strong deterrent. For the first time, perhaps, Russians must experience fear of dismantling for their aggression or lack of their own sovereignty should aggression against their neighbours continue.
Ordinary Russians must be imbued with an idea that life is so much better in a democratic, market oriented society where they may criticize with impunity their own leaders and yet have a television in every room of their house and a car for every member of their household.
Many good people have died. But, there will be many more trials and tribulations and more victims. We are only at the beginning of hopefully the end of Russian empire and Russian aggression which is the ultimate goal, but quite distant.
October 15, 2024 Askold Lozynskyj