Bogdan Maftei
The Erudite Elders
Oct 11, 2024
Right now, Russia’s mobilization efforts and recruitment tactics are really showing that the war in Ukraine is at a crucial point. As of early October, the focus remains on how Vladimir Putin is managing his military forces without resorting to a full-scale mobilization, which would risk backlash from the Russian population. While the mobilization wave of 2022 created a shock that many Russians are still reeling from, Putin is now walking a fine line. He aims to maintain the flow of soldiers to the front lines while avoiding the political fallout of a public mobilization decree. Putin’s approach is pretty broad, covering everything from offering financial incentives to even giving criminals a way out of prosecution if they agree to sign military contracts.
The Russian government has become increasingly creative in its recruitment strategies. For instance, advertisements promoting military contracts now permeate every aspect of daily life in Russia. From social media platforms to traditional media outlets, Russians are being urged to enlist, with promises of substantial financial rewards. The advertisements offer lucrative signing bonuses, with reports suggesting a one-time payment of 3 million rubles, sourced from federal, regional, and municipal funds, being offered to potential recruits. These payments are being accompanied by a slew of other benefits, including exemptions from military service, credit forgiveness, and even mortgage holidays. It’s clear that the Kremlin is pulling out all the stops to attract recruits without resorting to a more formal call-up that could trigger public unrest.
However, despite these efforts, the sheer attrition rate in the war is overwhelming the pace of recruitment. The Russian forces, spread thin across multiple fronts in Ukraine, are losing soldiers at a pace that far outstrips their ability to replace them. The war has become a meat grinder, and the Kremlin’s efforts to delay the inevitable full-scale mobilization may only buy time, but not solve the deeper problems plaguing the Russian military. Putin’s reluctance to declare a full mobilization stems from his fear of widespread unrest. Forced mobilization, particularly in large urban areas like Moscow and St. Petersburg, would be politically damaging, as it would push the war into the consciousness of those who have, until now, remained somewhat detached from its harsh realities.
In regions like Belgorod Oblast, where military recruitment efforts are intensifying, it is evident that local authorities are under immense pressure to meet recruitment targets. Some speculate that regional leaders are depleting their remaining resources or have secured federal subventions to meet these targets. Despite these efforts, the pool of willing recruits in more depressed regions has already been exhausted, leaving the Russian military to focus on more affluent urban centers. This shift marks a significant change in strategy, as Putin is aware that a large-scale mobilization targeting urban areas will be met with more resistance than previous efforts focused on rural and economically disadvantaged regions. The possibility of North Korean forces being deployed to assist Russia has been raised, though the specifics of their role remain unclear. Whether these
forces will be used in combat, construction, or logistical support remains to be seen. While such a move would be a significant development, it would also reflect the desperation of the Russian military, which is scrambling to find any available resources to bolster its forces.
In the meantime, reports suggest that Russia’s military commissions had, by early September, prepared detailed lists and calculated reserves, making all necessary arrangements for a potential large-scale mobilization. While Putin has not yet pulled the trigger on this plan, the administrative groundwork has already been laid. According to some estimates, the Kremlin is preparing to mobilize anywhere between 500,000 and 850,000 soldiers. However, the actual number of soldiers who would be deployed to the front lines is likely to be lower, as many would remain in training centers or reserves. Still, the scale of this mobilization effort cannot be ignored. Despite the Kremlin’s best efforts to keep the war out of sight and out of mind for most Russians, there is an underlying sense of apathy and detachment from the conflict. For many, the war has become a distant problem, something that happens “over there,” while daily life continues relatively unaffected in major cities. The Kremlin has really worked to shape this idea, pushing the narrative that the war is a necessary evil to defend Russia from outside threats, while making it seem like something that doesn’t really affect the average person. But, the truth is, that illusion might not last forever. If Putin is forced to order a full-scale mobilization, the reality of the war will come crashing into the lives of many Russians who have, until now, managed to avoid its direct consequences.
Meanwhile, those who have been recruited into the Russian military, whether voluntarily or through coercion, are beginning to experience the grim realities of war. Reports from the front lines suggest that Russian soldiers are being treated as little more than cannon fodder. Wounded soldiers are often left behind, and many are sent into fortified positions where their chances of survival are slim. As casualties mount, the Russian military’s ability to maintain morale and discipline among its troops is being severely tested.
At the same time, there are signs that the Russian military is struggling to meet its ambitious recruitment targets. With the intense fighting continuing, the Russian army needs at least 400,000 new recruits per year to maintain its current force levels. However, the actual recruitment figures are falling far short of this goal. In some regions, recruitment efforts have been hampered by a lack of willing volunteers, forcing the Kremlin to resort to increasingly desperate measures, such as recruiting prisoners and offering them clemency in exchange for military service. This recruitment drive is part of a broader effort by Putin to avoid the political fallout of a full-scale mobilization, but it also reflects a deeper problem within the Russian military. The war is taking a heavy toll on both soldiers and civilians, and the strain is beginning to show. Reports suggest that many soldiers are becoming increasingly disillusioned with the war, and there are growing concerns that the Russian army may simply refuse to fight if the situation does not improve. While the Kremlin continues to push the narrative that the war is going well and that victory is within reach, the reality on the ground tells a different story.
One of the most telling signs of the strain on the Russian military is the recent push to integrate military veterans into local government positions. Reports suggest that as many as 50 former soldiers who fought in the war may be appointed as mayors and governors in the coming months.
This move reflects a broader trend within the Russian government, where positions of power are increasingly being filled based on loyalty rather than competence. As a result, the administrative apparatus is becoming increasingly corrupt and inefficient, with many officials more interested in enriching themselves than in serving the public. While this degradation of the Russian political system has been ongoing for years, the war has accelerated the process. Positions of power are now being handed out based on a combination of loyalty and the ability to steal without getting caught. This system of patronage has created a government that is deeply dysfunctional, with many officials more focused on protecting their own interests than on addressing the needs of the Russian people.
As the war drags on, there are signs that this system of governance may be reaching its breaking point. Reports suggest that Putin is increasingly paranoid about his own security, having reportedly demolished his residence in Sochi due to fears of a potential drone strike. While some speculate that Putin is simply upgrading his residence, the fact remains that the Russian president is becoming increasingly isolated and distrustful of those around him. This isolation has only been compounded by the war, which has placed Putin in a position where he must constantly balance the demands of his military commanders, the needs of his political allies, and the discontent of the Russian people. While Putin continues to project confidence, there are growing concerns that the war may eventually lead to a crisis of leadership in Russia. The question is not whether Putin will win the war, but whether he can maintain control of the country long enough to claim victory.
Despite these challenges, Putin remains determined to continue the war. He believes that time is on his side and that Western leaders will eventually tire of supporting Ukraine. The Russian economy, while strained, is still functioning, and the defense industry continues to churn out weapons and equipment. While economists argue that Russia is on the verge of collapse, Putin believes that his country can endure the hardships of war for as long as necessary. The success or failure of Putin’s strategy will depend on whether he can maintain the support of the Russian people and the loyalty of his military commanders. As long as he can keep the war out of sight and out of mind for most Russians, he may be able to avoid the political fallout of a full-scale mobilization. However, if the war drags on and the casualties continue to mount, there is a risk that the Russian people may finally turn against him. For now, Putin is betting that he can ride out the storm, but the future remains uncertain.
In previous years, military service had, for some, been seen as an opportunity to escape economic hardship or as a patriotic duty. But as the war stretches on and the losses grow, the reality of the war is reaching even those insulated from its direct effects. Reports from the front reveal that many soldiers find themselves ill-prepared for the grueling conditions of combat, facing heavy losses with little to show for their efforts. This disconnect between the Kremlin’s optimistic rhetoric and the grim reality on the ground is causing a rift between the government and its military, as well as between Putin and the Russian public. This recruitment dilemma isn’t just a short-term problem; it speaks to a deeper issue in how Russia has managed its military resources over the past decade. Since the early 2000s, Putin had prioritized building an image of Russian military strength, but this image has been eroding as the war in Ukraine drags on. What
was once seen as an efficient, modernizing force is now being exposed as deeply flawed, plagued by logistical issues, poor training, and low morale. The Russian military, once feared, is increasingly viewed as a lumbering giant, large but unwieldy and increasingly vulnerable.
This vulnerability is not lost on Ukraine and its Western allies. While Russia struggles with its recruitment and resource challenges, Ukraine, supported by NATO and other Western nations, has continued to receive military aid and support. Ukraine’s ability to hold its ground against Russia’s much bigger military has caught a lot of analysts off guard, especially since Russia was thought to have the upper hand in terms of numbers and equipment when the war started. However, Ukraine’s strategic use of advanced Western technology, combined with its highly motivated and adaptable forces, has helped it hold the line against Russian advances.
One of the key elements of Ukraine’s success has been its ability to maintain public support for the war effort, both domestically and internationally. In contrast to Russia, where people are becoming more apathetic or frustrated, Ukrainians are still mostly united in their determination to resist the invasion. That sense of fighting for their survival as a nation has been key in keeping up their defense against a much bigger force. Ukraine’s international alliances have also proven to be a significant factor. The supply of weapons, intelligence, and financial aid from NATO and the EU has allowed Ukraine to sustain its war effort in ways that Russia may not have anticipated. These resources have enabled Ukraine to develop new tactics, focusing on mobile warfare, guerrilla-style operations, and precision strikes against Russian supply lines and key military infrastructure. As a result, Russian forces have been forced to adapt to a war that is far more decentralized and unpredictable than they initially expected.
Yet, Russia’s military failures are not just the result of poor strategy or leadership; they reflect broader systemic issues within the Russian state. For years, corruption and inefficiency have plagued the Russian military-industrial complex, and these flaws are now being laid bare. Billions of rubles have been funneled into military projects that have yielded little in terms of actual combat effectiveness. This mismanagement has not only undermined Russia’s war effort but also its ability to maintain a credible threat in the face of international opposition. For all of Putin’s bravado, his inner circle is undoubtedly aware of the precariousness of Russia’s position. In recent months, there has been a noticeable shift in how the Kremlin has framed the war. Once characterized as a quick and decisive “special military operation,” the war is now acknowledged as a protracted struggle, with no clear end in sight. This shift is reflected in Putin’s speeches, where he increasingly casts the war as a defensive struggle against the West, rather than a war of conquest. This narrative shift seems aimed at justifying the sacrifices being made by the Russian people, as well as managing expectations about the duration and cost of the war.
Moreover, the international isolation that Russia now faces has also weakened its global standing. Traditionally, Russia had managed to maintain a significant influence on the global stage through energy exports, military power, and strategic diplomacy. However, its invasion of Ukraine has eroded many of these advantages. European nations have taken decisive steps to reduce their reliance on Russian energy, and many of Russia’s former allies are distancing themselves, wary of being entangled in a conflict that increasingly appears unwinnable. China, which had been seen as a potential ally or at least a neutral partner, has maintained a cautious
distance, offering rhetorical support but avoiding direct involvement in the war. Other nations that have traditionally had close ties with Russia, such as India and Turkey, have also adopted a more pragmatic approach, engaging with both Russia and the West in an effort to preserve their own economic and strategic interests. This diplomatic isolation is compounded by Russia’s growing reliance on rogue states, such as Iran and North Korea, for military and economic support, further diminishing its credibility as a global power.
Internally, the war has placed significant strain on the Russian economy. While the Kremlin continues to claim that sanctions have had minimal impact, the reality is that the Russian economy is contracting. The effects of sanctions on key industries, such as energy, finance, and technology, are starting to be felt more acutely. The cost of maintaining the war effort is also draining the country’s financial reserves, which had been built up over years to withstand just such an international crisis. However, as those reserves dwindle, the Kremlin may soon find itself unable to fund both the war and the domestic programs necessary to placate an increasingly disillusioned public.
Russia’s elites, who have so far remained loyal to Putin, may begin to question whether his leadership is sustainable in the long term. Putin’s inner circle is dominated by figures who owe their positions and wealth to the system he has built, but that loyalty could falter if they begin to see him as a liability. Should Putin lose the support of key power brokers, the likelihood of a political shake-up in Moscow increases significantly. Furthermore, the broader Russian population, while generally apathetic or supportive of the war, could become a wildcard if conditions worsen. Protests and dissent have been suppressed effectively in recent years, but if the economic situation deteriorates further, and the losses in Ukraine continue to rise, public sentiment could shift. A tipping point may come when the Russian people, faced with declining living standards, increasing repression, and the reality of a protracted and costly war, begin to demand change.
The question now is whether Putin can maintain control over a system that is slowly buckling under the weight of the war. While the Kremlin has been adept at managing domestic dissent through a combination of propaganda, repression, and co-opting key elites, the strains of the war may eventually prove too much to contain. If economic conditions continue to deteriorate and military losses mount, the political calculus could shift dramatically.