Diane Francis
September 23, 2024
Two “earthquakes” just struck Russia. On September 18, a fleet of Ukrainian drones flew 300 miles inside Russia and blew sky-high an arsenal of missiles, shells, and mines. The ground shook, and the detonation registered 2.8 on the Richter scale. It could be seen from space, and fires burned over six square kilometers for days. An estimated 30,000 tons of ammo was obliterated, enough to supply Russia’s war machine for months. Then, on September 21, another “earthquake” hit when a fresh poll revealed a dramatic shift in Russian public opinion against Putin’s war. The survey, conducted with independent pollster ExtremeScan, found that 49 percent of Russians support the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukraine and peace talks even if the aims of the war have not been met. This marks an increase of 9 percentage points from the 40 percent who favored such a move in January 2024. “The Ukrainian invasion into the Kursk region was a shocking thing for many and decreased the number of those who want to fight till the goals are reached,” Aleksei Miniailo, a Russian opposition politician, told Newsweek.
The same week shocks occurred, a grim milestone was announced: One million people have died or been wounded in this war. As all the terrible news filters into Russia, it puts the lie to Putin’s pledge that his 2022 invasion was simply a “special operation” in a neighboring nation. It is a catastrophic war, and Russians know this. The Kremlin’s state-controlled media has been unable to suppress the facts because word spreads, and eyewitnesses describe the setbacks about the unimpeded invasion in Kursk, the crippling of Crimea, and horrendous bomb attacks. This demoralizes Russians, as does the continuing flood of caskets and wounded or traumatized soldiers back into their society. Now, fear also spreads as oil and ammunition depots, as well as airfields inside Russia, explode, culminating in the dreadful September conflagration in Tver.
The poll indicates that half of Russians want the war to end now, but it also shows that only 29 percent of Russians said they would support more mobilization. This push-back is significant because it boxes Putin strategically. After all, endless cannon fodder is his best strategic advantage. On September 20, the Institute for Studies in War reinforced that resistance exists. “Mobilization in Russia remains unlikely in the near to medium term due to Putin’s fear that mobilization is a direct threat to his regime’s stability.”
Ukraine’s relentless aerial escalation also limits Putin’s ongoing military options. On September 17, the day before Tver, Ukraine bombed the Engels airfield, 500 miles southeast of Moscow, destroying bombers capable of carrying out nuclear strikes or launching missile strikes against Ukraine’s civilians. Also attacked was the former military base set up by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin for his Wagner Group mercenaries. And Ukraine’s battle to regain Crimea continues. Reports are that Russia’s Black Sea fleet has recently evacuated again from a base in Novorossiysk out of concern that the US will finally permit Ukraine to fire its powerful, long-range ATACMS inside Russia. The fleet had already evacuated Crimea for Novorossiysk last
year due to waves of successful attacks by Ukrainian sea and aerial drones. Now, it moves even further away.
It’s little wonder that Putin remains silent these days. He hopes for a Trump victory and capitulation in November. But on September 26, President Volodymyr Zelensky will meet President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris at the White House to pitch an aggressive “Victory Plan.” Details remain unknown, but it’s about more escalation. He’s been lobbying Europe, too. On September 19, the European Parliament encouraged all member countries to allow Ukraine to use weapons to strike “legitimate military targets” in Russia.
Ukraine has already circumvented limitations by developing its long-range weapons and, some speculate, by using Western weapons without permission. The recent attack on Tver, for instance, penetrated underground concrete shelters. “To do this you need not just a missile, it must be a heavy missile,” said a European general, pointing to long-range weapons supplied to Ukraine by Western allies, such as the British-French Storm Shadow missiles. But Ukraine has stated its long-range rocket drones carry large warheads to destroy Russia’s missile and ammo arsenals. However, in a statement to Newsweek, the Ukrainian defense ministry officially stated, “We do not comment on what is happening in Russia.”
There’s little likelihood that Putin will negotiate, perhaps ever. This is why Ukrainians must convince President Biden and have taken a “damn the torpedoes” approach. Unfortunately, America’s backing of Ukraine “for as long as it takes” is no longer an option. Some 14 million Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes, and 8 million of its women and children are refugees in Europe and elsewhere. Moscow bombards the country’s cities and civilians constantly. In April, Zelensky pointed out that Russia fires ten shells for every Ukrainian one at the front. Kyiv does not have access to unlimited cannon fodder and never will. Its cities and villages are gradually being reduced to rubble. Winter is coming.
The only way to turn the tide is for Russia to be hammered continuously, a strategy that started with the Kursk invasion. Europe is on board, and the attacks have already shifted Russian public opinion, although not quickly enough. Oxford University historian Timothy Garton Ash optimistically speculates the White House will lift restrictions on Ukraine to end the lop-sided slaughter. He wrote in The Guardian: “All the more reason for the vice-president, Kamala Harris, who will inherit this major geopolitical challenge if she becomes president, and all those European allies who understand what is at stake, to urge Biden to leap over his own shadow and make the potentially game-changing moves now. This may be the last chance to enable Ukraine to achieve something plausibly called victory, the precondition for a lasting peace.”
Harris vows continued support of Ukraine if she is elected in November. She and Biden understand that a Russian victory in Ukraine will lead to a broader European conflict. Former President Trump refused during the presidential debate to say whether it’s in the U.S.’s interest for Ukraine to win the war. “I think it’s in the U.S.’s best interest to finish this war and just get it done. All right. Negotiate a deal,” Trump said. This is why Zelensky must make the case to Biden and Harris before the November 5 election. On September 21, he told a Ukrainian newspaper, “I think there’s a perfect chance that either quietly or publicly, the United States, Great Britain, France, and others will give the Ukrainians the green light to use these weapons against military targets in compliance with international law sometime over the next week or so.”
But Putin will decide what’s next. Ukraine now fights in Putin’s backyard but continues to be degraded daily at home. Russian public opinion without mass street protests or grumbling among his oligarchs or inner circle won’t change his mind. Ukraine knows this, so it must convince the West to let it escalate dramatically. This is the only approach that makes sense. Oxford’s Professor Ash quoted a Central Asian leader close to Putin who, when asked if Putin would negotiate, said bluntly, “When his generals tell him he’s losing.”
Diane Francis is an expert on Canada, the United States, Canada-US relations, Silicon Valley, future technology, geopolitics, the Ukraine-Russia conflict, Putin, energy, business, and white-collar crime. Always provocative, her direct and forceful writing has established her international reputation in covering the personalities, trends, and financial backstories that affect companies, individuals, governments and societies. Her popular twitter feed on tech and corruption has more than 240,000 followers around the world. An award-winning columnist, bestselling author, investigative journalist, speaker, and television commentator, she is Editor-at-Large at Canada’s National Post and a columnist for American Interest, Atlantic Council’s Ukraine Alert, and Kyiv Post. . In 1991, Francis became Editor of Canada’s Financial Post, the first woman editor of a national daily newspaper in Canada, a position she held until the paper was sold in 1998. She is the author of ten books, including Merger of the Century: Why Canada and America Should Become One Country (2013, featured in a cover story in Foreign Policy), Who Owns Canada Now?: Old Money, New Money and the Future of Canadian Business (2008), and Immigration: The Economic Case (2002).