That’s been tried before, and Russia broke its promise
National Post, 15 December 2024
Thirty years ago this month, Russia solemnly promised to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine. That has been forgotten by those eager to end the war by ceding to Russia parts of Ukraine’s sovereign territory if it promises not to come back later for more. The theory, such that it is, is that feeding the Russian bear now will prevent it from becoming hungry again later.
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was signed at an Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) conference on 5th December 1994. Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up the nuclear weapons remaining on their soil from the defunct Soviet empire; Ukraine then had the third-largest nuclear stockpile in the world. In exchange, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States promised to respect the sovereignty of all three states within their existing borders, and refrain from other belligerent economic or strategic behaviour. It was hailed, rightly, as a significant achievement regarding nuclear non-proliferation and regional security.
The American ambassador to Hungary then was Donald Blinken, a powerful Democratic donor who had bought the posting from president Bill Clinton. That’s not a scandal in the United States but business as usual; presidents from both parties have been selling ambassadorships to their most vigorous benefactors for generations.
Regarding such, it’s not known whether Donald Trump, the quondam-and-coming president, advised Emmanuel Macron in the sacred precincts of Notre Dame about the biography of Charles Kushner, his pick for American ambassador to France. Kushner’s son Jared is married to Trump’s daughter. Charles was a former Democratic fundraiser who now gives lavishly to Trump.
Twenty years ago, while under investigation for violating campaign finance and tax laws, Charles Kushner discovered that his brother-in-law was co-operating with authorities. In retaliation, he hired a prostitute to seduce his own sister’s husband, filmed the adulterous encounter and sent the tape to his sister. He was convicted, including for witness tampering. Not to worry, Trump pardoned him back in his first term. The French must be honoured.
But back to Donald Blinken, the father of Antony Blinken, the current secretary of state. Back in 1994, Blinken père was bullish on the Budapest Memorandum, as it stabilized security arrangements for the former Soviet republics. The subjugated states of the external empire, Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, were integrating with the West. Something analogous needed to be worked out with the former Soviet internal empire.
After the admission in 1999 of Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic to NATO, the senior Blinken wrote, amidst the Russia war in Chechnya, that Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin “tacitly acknowledge that Russia’s problems do not include the enlarged NATO to its west.”
“Nine months after Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic were admitted to NATO and six months after NATO’s successful conclusion of the fighting in Kosovo, the principal argument opposing NATO enlargement (Don’t upset Russia) now seems greatly exaggerated,” Blinken Sr. wrote. “The reality is that Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic’s NATO accession is in Russia’s interest because NATO’s eastward growth has brought the rule of law and the peaceful resolution of conflict closer to Russia’s borders.”
The Budapest Memorandum and NATO accession were part of securing eastern Europe against future instability and war. For the Poles, Czechs, Hungarians — and in 2004, for Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia — their security was guaranteed by NATO membership. For Ukraine, it was guaranteed by a Russian promise.
Which worked out better? Why has Russia been bleeding in Ukraine, when it could have easily swallowed up the Baltic states, which have a measure of strategic naval importance? NATO membership. What lesson did Finland and Sweden take from Russia’s 2022 invasion? NATO membership, joining after seventy years of remaining outside the alliance.
What if, 30 years ago, instead of trusting Ukraine’s security to the promise of Yeltsin and his successor Putin, the British and Americans had put Ukraine on the NATO accession track? What if Ukraine had been part of the class of 2004 with the former Soviet republics? No one was thinking along those lines at the time, but clearly trusting in the Budapest Memorandum was a mistake.
Budapest’s lesson is that without credible military guarantees, Russian promises are not reliable bases for security. That lesson was learned again ten years ago, as Putin’s promise to “monitor” Syrian chemical weapon stockpiles became instead grounds for an incursion of Russian troops into the region, extending the bloodletting of Assad regime for another decade.
Russia suffered a serious blow in Syria with the downfall of an ally. It has been weakened there, and on the battlefield in Ukraine. It is not time for the new American administration to reward Russian deceit with territorial gains secured by still more perfidious promises. Ukrainian sovereignty and security are determinative for Ukrainians, and essential to contain Russia in regional security.
Ukraine tried relying on Russian promises thirty years ago. It does not need another Budapest Memorandum.