From Air Marshal (retd) Edward Stringer
November 5, 2024
FT
The US election poses twin strategic dangers for Ukraine, and for European allies. A Trump administration may attempt to impose a “deal” with Russia. A Harris administration may continue to withhold the support Ukraine needs to win the war (“Ukraine and US warn Kyiv’s troops could face North Korean forces ‘in days’”, Report, October 31).
Both would repeat the mistakes of the 1938 Munich Agreement and would likely lead to a wider war.
In the first scenario, such a deal would be Donald Trump’s Munich. In the second, it would, as Europeans, be our Munich. We can — and must — prevent such an outcome for five principal reasons. First, Russia is not destined to prevail. Russia cannot sustain its war effort at current levels beyond 2025 when it will have exhausted key stocks. It is losing heavy cannon barrels and armoured vehicles at a rate far higher than it can replace.
Second, there is no credible plan for European security after any “ceasefire”. The Putin regime cannot be trusted to keep to a deal. A ceasefire would let Russia reconstitute its forces, putting us at a disadvantage.
Third, failing to win endangers all European allies. A “Minsk III” (or Munich II) agreement would signal weakness and invite coercion upon us.
Fourth, a route to Ukrainian victory still exists. Using new military technology, we can quickly leverage Europe’s industrial capacity to build the capabilities to disable Russia’s war machine.
Fifth, those who want to act, can. A coalition of willing powers could supply Ukraine with what it needs to win and provide Kyiv with real security guarantees. Where they change facts and policy on the ground, others will follow.
In this appeal, we urge willing European capitals to urgently arm themselves with a real contingency plan for any outcome of the US presidential election by collectively enhancing financial and military support to Ukraine, with the focus on a clear theory of victory.