For Two Days In A Row, The Russians Hurled Tanks At The Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade.
The Russians are hoping to break through to Kurakhivka.
David Axe
Forbes
July 27, 2024
One day after sending 57 armored vehicles and a dozen bike troops on a doomed mission to break through the Ukrainian line east of the Ukrainian stronghold in Kurakhivka, in eastern Ukraine, the Russian army tried again—and with similar results.
The first assault, on Wednesday, met a synchronized defense by mines, artillery, missiles and drones belonging to the elite Ukrainian 79th Air Assault Brigade. The Russians retreated, leaving behind six wrecked tanks, seven wrecked infantry fighting vehicles and all 12 bikes. The 79th Air Assault Brigade counted 40 dead Russians and 37 wounded ones.
The smaller assault on Thursday, involving 16 vehicles, met the same layered defense—and the same fate. The attackers turned around, abandoning a destroyed tank and two destroyed fighting vehicles. “Twenty-three Russians finished their SVO ahead of schedule,” the 79th Air Assault Brigade quipped, using the Russian acronym for “special military operation”—a euphemism for Russia’s wider war on Ukraine. “Another 29 received injuries of varying severity,” the Ukrainian brigade added.
In stark contrast to the Avdiivka sector 20 miles to the north, where Russian forces are slowly pushing back disorganized Ukrainian forces, the Kurakhivka sector is becoming an attrition trap for the Russians. They keep attacking, keep encountering stiff Ukrainian defenses and keep retreating—only to repeat the bloody exercise a few days later.
The Ukrainian analysis group Frontelligence Insight anticipated this seemingly absurd dynamic in a report back in May. For the Russians, capturing Kurakhivka is the key to capturing the adjacent stronghold of Kurakhove—and consolidating their control over Donetsk Oblast. “It is probable that Russians will attempt to reach Kurakhivka, providing them with an opportunity to cut off Kurakhove from logistical routes,” Frontelligence Insight explained.
It would be a very hard fight for the attackers. “Due to the area’s relatively favorable defensive structures and geographic conditions, we do not anticipate rapid advances by Russian forces there,” the analysis group added.
And it doesn’t help that the Russians have been attacking in multiple sectors at the same time, spreading out their offensive combat power. “Given the Russian attempt to advance in multiple directions simultaneously, they may struggle to achieve their goals due to a lack of sufficient forces.”
But the twin prizes of Kurakhivka and Kurakhove are hard for Russian commanders to resist. And the Russians know better than anyone that these back-to-back assaults fail until they don’t.
It just takes one lucky attack out of dozens to achieve that first breakthrough that can trigger a gradual collapse of Ukrainian defenses, allowing the Russians to claw forward.
That’s what happened west of Avdiivka recently. It’s surely what Russian commanders hope will happen east of Kurakhivka, too. “Gradual advancement at a slower pace is still possible,” Frontelligence Insight warned.
Yes, the Russians’ attack on the 79th Air Assault Brigade’s positions on Wednesday ended in disaster for them. So did their attack on Thursday. But maybe the next attack will succeed.