By Janusz Bugajski
June 6, 2024
Washington Examiner
The policies of President Joe Biden’s administration are prolonging the war in Ukraine and benefitting Russia. The White House was unprepared for Moscow’s full-scale conquest and has consistently prevented Ukraine from stymieing the aggressor.
The partial lifting of prohibitions on using United States-supplied weapons, allowing them to hit military targets in Russia only if they pose an immediate threat to Ukrainian forces, is clearly insufficient. Instead, President Volodymyr Zelensky is pleading for permission for long-range strikes against Russia’s military infrastructure to help shorten the war.
Russia’s mass invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was predictable, as Moscow had prepared the offensive for several months. Although U.S. intelligence agencies warned that Russia’s full-scale invasion was imminent, policymakers failed to rapidly provide Kyiv with all the necessary weapons to defeat the invader. Washington’s bungled approach was based on two false premises.
First, officials were convinced that Moscow would seek an “off-ramp” because of international condemnation accompanied by damaging economic sanctions. In reality, President Vladimir Putin has staked his power on subduing Ukraine, while Kyiv cannot bargain with a regime intent on eliminating Ukraine’s existence.
Second, fearful U.S. policymakers concluded that providing Ukraine with more lethal weapons would lead to “escalation” and provoke Moscow into attacking the West or using tactical nuclear missiles against Ukraine. Instead, Moscow has viewed the slow provision of weapons to Ukraine as emblematic of pronounced Western fears of Russia.
Ukraine’s fighting capabilities and social resilience during the Russian invasion stunned Biden officials, who expected Kyiv to sue for a ceasefire given the allegedly overwhelming ability of Russia’s military. Instead, Ukraine demonstrated that a nation determined to preserve its statehood cannot be easily defeated, especially by a deeply corrupted Russian imperial state that itself faces internal rupture.
The Biden team has continued to prohibit Ukraine from using Western weapons to destroy legitimate military targets deep inside Russia. This is the equivalent of disallowing Washington from seeking to eliminate Osama bin Laden in Pakistan after the 9/11 attacks.
As a result, Moscow can amass its forces for new strikes on Ukrainian territory and continue its daily terrorist bombings of Ukrainian cities. Kyiv is grateful for the crucial military aid it receives but asserts that by firing long-range weapons into Russian territory, the umbilical cord of equipment, ammunition, fuel, and manpower for Russia’s occupation forces can be cut.
Washington’s risk-averse policy is slowly being amended, but U.S. officials need to discard outdated preconceptions about Russia’s power that obstruct Ukraine from achieving more victories. In addition to limiting Kyiv’s preventive strikes inside Russia, the White House opposes the destruction of oil refineries and other energy targets that fuel Russia’s military and are the major source of Moscow’s revenues.
In effect, the war has been prolonged by poor policy planning and fear of Russian capabilities. In reality, evidence indicates that Moscow is in no position to intensify hostilities by attacking NATO. Its warnings of red lines and nuclear retaliation have proven to be illusory. Instead, it engages in influence operations and sabotage missions to divide the Western democracies and reduce their resolve to help Ukraine.
The irrational fear of conflict escalation has become a psychological device deployed by Moscow to weaken American willpower. Adversaries will deliberately stoke that fear to pursue their objectives with little concern about any negative repercussions.
For a major power to prevail, it must be able to discard any irrational fears, project its own strengths, and exploit the vulnerabilities of its adversaries. Unfortunately, when a U.S. administration lacks clarity over its international security objectives, then it cannot develop an effective policy to achieve them.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book is Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture. His new book, published in the fall, is titled Pivotal Poland: Europe’s Rising Power.