December 2, 2024
DIANE FRANCIS
Donald Trump catapulted to fame in 1987 with his book “The Art of the Deal,” which outlined tactics for business success: Think big, anticipate the worst, know your market and customer, use your leverage, and everything is negotiable. This algorithm will forge Trump’s New World Order, not diplomatic politesse. He promised to end Russia’s war by his inauguration on January 20 — a deadline to generate proposals and negotiations. Thus far, Putin has said nothing, but Ukraine’s Zelensky pitched a plan that after the war, Americans and allies can invest in his country’s natural resources, worth $26 trillion, equivalent to Canada’s or Australia’s mineral wealth. Trump has not commented or described his road map to peace. But he re-appointed Sebastian Gorka as a security advisor, who said on television: “I will give one tip away that the President has mentioned. He will say to that murderous former KGB colonel, that thug who runs the Russian Federation, you will negotiate now, or the aid we have given to Ukraine thus far will look like peanuts. That’s how he will force those gentlemen to come to an arrangement that stops the bloodshed.”
Trump “knows the market and customer.” He understands that America has unprecedented economic, military, and technological superiority to use as leverage in any deal. Trump also knows that Russia is on the ropes. Its army has been decimated. Its economy and currency tank and many Russians want to end the war and reject conscription. Putin’s army has been unable to reoccupy Kursk, a piece of Russia that Ukraine quickly overran and occupied this summer. In other words, Russia has a weak bargaining position, but the question is whether Putin wants a deal.
Horse trading, not diplomacy, is something very few political leaders understand. Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank (former Financial Minister of France and chair of Baker & McKenzie, a prominent Chicago-based international law firm), certainly gets it. The Financial Times recently asked her about Trump’s threat to impose 10 to 20 percent tariffs on Europe and whether this represents a trigger. She responded, “No, I don’t think it’s a crisis. I think it’s an awakening. It’s a big awakening. Europe should not retaliate but negotiate and adopt a `cheque-book strategy’ to reduce American trade deficits with Europe by purchasing liquefied natural gas and defense equipment from the United States.”
She also pointed out that a range of tariffs between 10 and 20 percent were mentioned, which meant it was the opening gambit to negotiate, not a firm fixed number. “We could signal that we are prepared to sit at the table and see how to work together,” she said. Last month, Trump also told Canada and Mexico that he would impose 25 percent tariffs until they prevented fentanyl and illegal migrants from crossing their borders into America. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau flew immediately down to Mar-A-Lago to placate Trump. Mexico’s new president threatened retaliatory tariffs but will eventually launch negotiations as Trudeau did.
But ending a war is another matter. Even so, Trump’s January 20 deadline has kickstarted discussions, resulted in escalations on the battlefield, and accelerated shifts. France’s Le Monde editorial “The Moment of Truth for Europeans” described the impact of Trump’s re-election on the war. “This brutal acceleration of the conflict is also linked to the uncertainty about the intentions of Donald Trump, who promised to end the war but without saying how is forcing Europeans to redefine their position. In reality, the moment of truth that they have long hoped to escape is as if they could indefinitely ignore that this war is first and foremost a European war that has arrived.”
Last week, Zelensky signaled that Ukraine might consider ceding some territory if invited to join NATO. Russian signals, by contrast, have been non-existent or consisted of insults, threats, or warnings. Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian Security Council deputy chairman, stated that Russia might retaliate and escalate against Ukraine’s use of long-range missiles from the West by bombing NATO bases. Days later, Putin issued a thinly veiled threat at a press conference, saying that “Donald Trump isn’t safe,” and Medvedev told a reporter that if Trump tries “too hard” to create peace in Ukraine, “he may end up as JFK.”
Trump’s re-election and approach have also changed attitudes in Washington. His new team and Congress appear to be less “anti-Ukraine,” according to retired US General Ben Hodges. In an interview in Toronto, he said he’s more optimistic about Ukraine’s prospects. “Putin is weak and isolated,” he added. “[Joe] Biden did Trump a favor by approving the use of long-range missiles to hit targets inside Russia. This gives Trump more leverage.” Ukraine now bombs military and infrastructure sites inside Russia with impunity despite Medvedev’s nuclear threats. “In the last few weeks, I feel it’s changed,” said General Hodges. “Putin’s only hope was to wait us out,” but now he also has other issues that require military and political attention. “Georgia is blowing up, and so is Syria.”
Russia has escalated its destruction of Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure. Ground fighting has intensified as both sides attempt to improve their land position in case a ceasefire is agreed upon before negotiations. But now is the time, said Hodges, for NATO to escalate by destroying Putin’s oil export income and shutting down Russian ships plying the Black and Baltic Seas – regions where they have a military advantage. This would provide an added benefit to Trump because impeding oil shipments also threatens oil-dependent China. Depriving Beijing of cheap oil, plus threats of higher trade barriers, would turn President Xi Jinping’s horrible economy into a disaster. This might help Trump force Xi to pick a side and pressure Putin to negotiate.
Zelensky said NATO must invite Ukraine to join to stop the fighting. “But the invitation must be given to Ukraine within its internationally recognized [1991] borders. That’s what we need to do fast, and then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically,” he told a British newspaper. “A ceasefire is needed to guarantee that Putin will not come back to acquire additional territory in Ukraine.”
This was the first time Zelensky mentioned a ceasefire scenario that might temporarily exclude occupied regions. These were illegally annexed by Moscow and condemned internationally. Putin has stipulated that Kyiv must accept these territorial losses before peace negotiations begin.
To break the logjam, Gorka came out with a statement that threatened to unleash more American firepower to force Putin to the negotiating table. But, a Washington Post editorial cautions, “Trump wants to make a deal in the Ukraine war, but a bad deal is worse than none. If Trump leaves Ukraine dismembered, America will look weak, and dictators will be emboldened.”