November 18, 2024
DIANE FRANCIS
November 19 marks the 1,000th day in Ukraine’s struggle against Moscow’s full-scale invasion. Fittingly, President Joe Biden yesterday shifted policy by permitting Kyiv to fire long-range American missiles into the Kursk Region, which Ukraine seized in August. This won’t turn the tide of the war but will improve Ukraine’s bargaining position in upcoming peace negotiations. The weapons will also help Kyiv repel the 50,000 North Korean and Russian troops who have been amassed to recapture Kursk. And, likely, Britain, France, and Germany will also grant permission for their long-range weapons to be used, particularly following Russia’s November 16 and 17 bombing attacks against civilians across Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky has pleaded for months for such help as his country is slowly turning into rubble. He responded immediately to Biden’s decision: “Strikes are not carried out with words. Such things are not announced. Missiles will speak for themselves.”
Biden’s decision has riled Republicans — those who urged him to do it months before as well as those from its pro-Russia camp who complain it will impede Trump’s effort to end the war. However, the move doesn’t staunch peace talks but will strengthen Ukraine’s hand. Its seizure of Kursk this summer was a masterstroke because it makes a frozen conflict impossible. This is because Russia wants its land back but will have to swap Ukrainian land to do so. Despite that obvious tactic, an emotional Donald Trump Jr. slammed the decision as strictly political on X: “The Military Industrial Complex seems to want to make sure they get World War 3 going before my father has a chance to create peace and save lives. Gotta lock in those $Trillions. Life be damned!!! Imbeciles!”
As anyone knows, the best defense is offense. It isn’t very reasonable for pro-Russian sympathizers to propose concessions before the two sides even sit down. Still, others trot out references to World War 3 based on fears surrounding Putin’s alleged “red lines,” which have proven to be bluffs. The facts are that Ukrainian drones and Western weapons have been pummeling military and energy targets inside Russia for months. For instance, in September, Putin said the use of Western long-range weapons inside Russia would be viewed as direct participation by NATO in the war, which would significantly change “the very nature of the conflict.” It hasn’t.
Continuing and expanding help to Ukraine is essential, and the Biden administration has continued expediting military aid and providing technical support on the ground, following months of delays caused by Trump supporters in Congress. However, the post-election reality is that Trump can theoretically stop Ukrainian aid altogether when he assumes office on January 20. This means defeat unless the Europeans fully support Ukraine’s war effort. France and Germany are onside, and The Financial Times reported that Sir Keir Starmer, UK prime minister, will urge G20 leaders to “double down” on their support for Ukraine ahead of Donald Trump’s January inauguration. “I am going to make shoring up support for Ukraine top of my
agenda as we go into the G20 because we’ve seen 1,000 days of aggression, 1,000 days of sacrifice by the Ukrainians.”
Zelensky has argued that cross-border strikes with the American ATACMS, British Storm Shadows, and French Scalp missiles are essential to halt Russia’s incessant bombing raids and the entry of more foreign enemies into the fray. “Two countries [Russia and North Korea] are against us, against Ukraine,” he said last week. “Putin is testing the West, NATO, and even South Korea, observing their response to North Korean forces joining his campaign. If the response is weak, we should expect the numbers of foreign soldiers on our soil to increase.”
The Washington Post cited a government official who agreed that the strategic change was aimed at North Korea. “The move is in part aimed at deterring Pyongyang from sending more troops. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un must understand that the initial deployment has been a ‘costly’ mistake.”
As political support wanes, Russian resolve hardens. On November 17, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz stated that his recent phone conversation with Putin showed that “little has changed” in Putin’s views on the war in Ukraine and that this is “not good news.” The Washington Post also reported, “Trump called Putin after his re-election, and in that call, several people said, Trump warned the Russian leader not to escalate in Ukraine and said he wanted to discuss the resolution of the war soon. The Kremlin denied that the call took place.” Now, days later, Putin plans a massive attack by 50,000 troops in Kursk.
Trump now understands who he’s up against and that he will have difficulties pulling off a fair deal for the victimized Ukrainians. Russians won’t undertake “good faith negotiations”. Moscow doesn’t recognize the status quo, and its occupation of 20 percent of Ukraine is considered a “compromise” to extreme nationalists. They want all of Ukraine, and Putin will be emboldened by the existence of pro-Russia Republicans and will push to occupy Ukraine’s Black Sea coastline to Odesa. This possibility would guarantee a future invasion into the European Union by crippling Ukraine and giving Putin easy access to Moldova and the Danube River.
Alternatively, Trump could gain the upper hand because of America’s military and economic superiority and the fact that Russia’s economy is falling apart. He must stand up to Putin for planning an enormous escalation after being asked not to do so. Further, Trump can expedite a peace deal by endorsing the use of long-range missiles and pushing the Europeans to do the same. Finally, he should require that Putin call a halt to all horrific bombing forays against civilians in Ukraine to demonstrate his good faith before talks can begin.
A consensus among Western allies is needed to keep the peace. Providing Ukraine with long-range missiles will be the first step toward providing Ukraine with the permanent security guarantees it has earned. The second step will be to allow Ukraine to join NATO, which Putin will oppose. However, a defeat in Kursk and tough talk from Trump will allay that possibility and, at the same time, eliminate the possibility of World War 3.