Bogdan Maftei
The Erudite Elders
Oct 24, 2024
Ukraine has recently claimed to have successfully targeted Russia’s largest explosives manufacturing facility, a strike that could have a meaningful effect on Russia’s military capabilities. According to Ukraine’s intelligence service, they struck the Sverdlov Plant, a state-owned facility located in the Nizhny Novgorod region, which is known as the largest explosives factory in Russia, making it a crucial part of the Russian military-industrial structure. Historically established in 1916, it played a major role in supporting the Soviet Union’s wartime efforts during both World Wars, producing a range of explosives and chemical compounds essential for munitions production. Currently, it is responsible for manufacturing a variety of explosives, including TNT (trinitrotoluene), hexogen (RDX), octogen (HMX), and other chemical compounds critical for high-explosive ordnance, rockets, and missile systems. In recent years, the Sverdlov Complex has maintained a key position in the Russian Federation’s defense sector, supplying munitions to various branches of the Russian military, including the artillery, armored divisions, and air force. In particular, it has been reported that the plant contributes to the production of explosive materials used in advanced precision-guided munitions, artillery shells, and anti-aircraft missiles.
The plant itself spans an extensive industrial complex, covering sixteen square kilometers and housing a combination of older Soviet-era facilities alongside modernized production lines, which have undergone periodic upgrades to meet the demands of Russia’s current military engagements. The Sverdlov Plant has also been implicated in producing explosives for export, with reports indicating sales to allied countries within the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as well as customers in the Middle East and Southeast Asia. Production output from the plant has fluctuated over the past decade due to both international sanctions targeting Russia’s defense industry and supply chain disruptions, particularly following the imposition of economic sanctions by the European Union and the United States in response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Despite these challenges, the plant continues to operate under close government supervision, and it is classified as a critical facility within Russia’s broader strategy of military self-sufficiency.
The Sverdlov Complex is thought to contain large storage depots for explosives and raw materials, making it a key target for Ukraine’s efforts to disrupt Russia’s ability to resupply its front-line forces. Its location near major rail networks adds to its importance, as it allows for the easy transport of explosive materials to Russian military units across the country. If the plant were destroyed or its operations disrupted for a long period, it could seriously impact the supply chain for Russian artillery and missile forces, which depend on steady production from facilities like Sverdlov to keep their operations running during extended military campaigns. The integration into Russia’s broader military-industrial complex goes beyond just production of
explosives. It is part of a network of facilities tasked with supporting the logistics chain for Russia’s military engagements, including the ongoing war in Ukraine.
The plant’s output contributes directly to the manufacture of munitions for multiple rocket launch systems (MRLS), artillery rounds, and bombs used by Russian air forces. Reports suggest that much of the plant’s production has been directed toward replenishing the supplies of the BM-30 Smerch and BM-27 Uragan MLRS, both of which have been heavily used in the Ukraine war. These systems rely on the high-explosive components manufactured at the plant, with each salvo of rockets requiring large amounts of explosives. Additionally, the Sverdlov Plant is crucial in producing the explosive charges used in Russia’s Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) and Kh-101 cruise missiles, both of which have been deployed in Ukraine for precision strikes on infrastructure and military targets.
The plant’s capability is not limited to traditional explosives; it also produces advanced explosive formulations designed for use in more sophisticated munitions, such as air-launched bombs and bunker-busting ordnance. For example, the high-explosive filler used in these precision-guided munitions is specifically formulated to maintain performance in a variety of operational environments, from extreme cold to high-temperature conditions, ensuring that Russian munitions remain effective in diverse combat scenarios. This flexibility has allowed the Russian military to maintain a degree of tactical versatility in their operations, even as they face logistical challenges on the frontlines. The precise output of the Sverdlov Plant is not fully public, but estimates from military analysts place its capacity at several thousand tons of explosives annually, with production peaking during periods of heightened military activity.
The plant’s operations are also heavily dependent on the availability of precursor chemicals, many of which are subject to international sanctions. Compounds such as ammonium nitrate and nitric acid, both essential for manufacturing TNT and other high-explosives, are increasingly difficult for Russia to source in large quantities. Some reports indicate that while Russia has managed to circumvent certain sanctions by engaging with non-Western suppliers, including China and Iran, the supply of these chemicals remains constrained, further stressing the production capabilities of facilities like the Sverdlov Plant. This situation has likely led to rationing of explosives, prioritizing key military operations while reducing stockpiles intended for longer-term conflicts. In the absence of foreign chemicals, the plant has been forced to rely more heavily on domestic sources, which may not meet the demand for both quantity and quality in the long run, especially given the precision requirements for modern explosives.
Furthermore, it has been speculated that the plant is involved in the development of new types of explosives as part of Russia’s broader effort to modernize its military capabilities. In particular, research and development (R&D) efforts at the plant have reportedly focused on creating more efficient explosive formulations that pack higher power into smaller packages. This includes explosive materials with improved energy densities, which can be used to increase the lethality of smaller warheads. Such advances would allow Russian forces to deploy smaller munitions with the same or greater destructive power as their larger counterparts, enhancing their operational flexibility on the battlefield. In addition to its military applications, the Sverdlov Plant has been involved in dual-use production, which means that some of its outputs, such as
certain chemicals and industrial-grade explosives, are also used in civilian sectors like mining and construction. However, the majority of its capacity has been directed toward military needs in recent years, as the demands of the war in Ukraine have taken precedence. This shift in focus has led to the diversion of resources away from commercial customers, further reflecting the plant’s crucial role in supporting Russia’s war effort.
Another dimension of the plant’s significance lies in its historical vulnerability to accidents and explosions. Given the volatile nature of explosives production, the Sverdlov Plant has experienced several industrial accidents over the years, including a major explosion in 2018 that resulted in multiple fatalities and significant damage to the facility. These incidents highlight the inherent risks of operating such a facility, especially under the pressure of wartime production, where safety protocols may be stretched to their limits to meet output demands. The increased pace of production in recent years, combined with the strain of sanctions and shortages, may increase the risk of further accidents, potentially compounding the disruptions caused by targeted military strikes.
Situated approximately 900 kilometers from Ukraine, located in a region with well-developed transportation links, including access to major railways and highways, the plant’s products can be distributed relatively quickly to Russia’s military forces. However, this accessibility also makes the plant a prime target for aerial and drone strikes aimed at disrupting these supply lines. Damage to key transport nodes around the plant could further isolate it, delaying the shipment of explosives and munitions to Russian forces on the front lines. Moreover, the reliance on rail transport for heavy materials, such as explosives, leaves the supply chain particularly exposed to sabotage and attacks on infrastructure outside the immediate vicinity of the plant.
Considering the distance from the Ukrainian border, we have to ask ourselves what’s really going on with Russia’s air defenses. The fact that Ukrainian drones can cover such a vast stretch of Russian airspace without being detected or stopped until they reach their target is surely a cause for alarm among Russian military leaders. The ability of these drones to penetrate so deeply raises serious questions about the effectiveness of Russia’s air defense systems, especially against modern, agile unmanned aerial vehicles. While the Russian government claims its air defenses intercepted and destroyed 110 drones during these attacks, the real issue is with those that managed to slip through and hit their targets. Modern air defense systems are generally expected to neutralize about 70% of incoming drones, which suggests that roughly 30 drones evaded Russia’s defenses and struck the explosives plant.
Satellite images and on-the-ground photos show that the plant is a vast complex with numerous buildings and facilities, making it a tough target for attackers. To inflict serious damage on such a large site, you’d need significant explosive power. The drones involved in these strikes are thought to carry relatively small warheads, similar to the Iranian-made Shahed drones, which carry less than 500 pounds of explosives. While 500 pounds might seem like a lot, it’s not much when it comes to damaging a massive industrial facility like this. Typically, you’d need either multiple strikes or much larger ordnance to destroy or cripple such a complex. However, the real effectiveness of these attacks doesn’t just depend on the size of the explosions. Targeting key
parts of the plant or critical infrastructure can make even smaller explosions have a much bigger impact.
For instance, if the drones targeted specialized equipment essential for the plant’s operations, such as precision machining tools or chemical processing apparatus, the damage could halt production indefinitely. Replacing such equipment might be difficult due to international sanctions that restrict Russia’s access to advanced machinery and technology. This means that even without leveling the entire facility, Ukraine could significantly disrupt Russia’s explosives production by incapacitating key elements that are hard to replace. Another tactical consideration is the potential for secondary explosions. If the drones struck areas where explosives were stored in a volatile state, the initial blast could trigger a chain reaction, leading to widespread destruction within the plant.
While the loss of the Sverdlov Plant may not cripple Russia’s war machine, it contributes to a pattern of attrition that could have cumulative effects. Russia has the capacity to source explosives and munitions from allies such as North Korea and can import manufactured components from countries like China. These relationships can mitigate the immediate impact of losing domestic production facilities. The attack is part of a broader Ukrainian campaign aimed at undermining Russia’s logistical and supply chains. By targeting production facilities, supply depots, and key infrastructure, Ukraine seeks to erode Russia’s ability to sustain prolonged military operations. Reports indicate that Russian casualties are mounting and that the availability of equipment on the battlefield is diminishing. These trends suggest that Ukraine’s strategy may be yielding tangible results.
Economic factors are also at play here. International sanctions on Russia are reportedly starting to weigh on its economy, with restrictions on importing technology, machinery, and critical components making it harder for Russia to replace lost equipment and sustain its military-industrial base. The attack on the Sverdlov Plant only adds to these difficulties by directly cutting into domestic production capacity. This situation also brings up concerns about the future of air defense systems. Traditional defenses may not be suited to handle the growing threat from small, low-flying drones. The fact that these drones can penetrate deep into Russian territory raises serious doubts about the effectiveness of Russia’s current air defenses. This vulnerability could push Russia to reconsider its defense strategies and develop new technologies to better counter drone threats.