The Ukrainian president has urged the West to increase its support for the war against Russia, citing a policy of ‘peace through force’. We explore his options
Larisa Brown
October 17, 2024
The Times
President Zelensky of Ukraine has plans for a “non-nuclear” strategic deterrence package aimed at preventing and containing Russian aggression. Although details of the “comprehensive” plan are secret, they have been discussed with the leaders of the United States, the UK, France, Italy and Germany.
Zelensky wants the package to be sufficient to protect his country against any military threat. “Ukraine proposes to deploy on its land a comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package that will be sufficient to protect Ukraine from any military threat from Russia and will narrow Russia’s options to the following prospects: either join an honest diplomatic process for a just end to the war or be guaranteed to miss the opportunity to continue an aggressive war as a result of Ukraine using the provided deterrence package in accordance with certain military objectives,” he said in the Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, on Wednesday as he presented his long-awaited “victory plan”. “That is, the containment package is a fact that Russia either goes into diplomacy or leaves to the loss of its war machine. Peace through force.”
Analysts and military sources believe that the package could involve a variety of measures and weapons, such as the development of ballistic missiles, a build-up of Nato infrastructure and an increase in battle-hardened Ukrainian forces.
Solomiia Bobrovska, a member of Ukraine’s defence committee and deputy head of the country’s Nato delegation, said: “I suppose Mr Zelensky means long-range precision weapons like non-nuclear ballistic and cruise missiles and fighter jets with air-dropped guided munitions.”
What are Zelensky’s options?
Develop a ballistic missile capability
One Ukrainian military source said they also believed that Zelensky was referring to developing long-strike capabilities, such as ballistic missiles and drones that can reach targets much further away.
These could include more donations from Ukraine’s allies of weapons such as Britain’s Storm Shadow missiles, with a range of more than 155 miles, and America’s army tactical missile systems, which have a range up to 190 miles. The Germans have hundreds of long-range Taurus missiles but have so far refused to give them to Ukraine. The source said that Ukraine also
wanted support for the production of longer-range weapons inside Ukraine. Such weapons would not be subject to any constraints imposed by the West.
Ukraine wants to be able to use the long-range weapons from the West inside Russia, so they can hit logistics supplies and ammunition depots. However, President Biden is unlikely to give Ukraine the green light to use the weapons inside Russia before the US election in November, for fear of escalation.
Return of Nato troops to Ukraine
Justin Crump, a military analyst, former British Army officer and chief executive of the Sibylline intelligence consultancy, said his suspicion was that the non-nuclear deterrence package would involve basing western forces inside Ukraine for the long term. Positioning allied forces there would act as a deterrent because Russia would seek to avoid killing Nato troops. “It would be the new ‘West Germany’ plan from the Cold War, where the Ukrainians would say ‘give us a bunch of fighting troops. You can invest in our energy and minerals and if you base troops here that means if we are attacked in future the Russians would be targeting British forces,’ ” he said. He pointed out that before Russia had invaded, Nato training troops had pulled out of Ukraine out of fear that they would come under attack.
The Times reported last week that British military chiefs were considering sending UK forces back to western Ukraine to train troops, after a request from the Ukrainian military. The Ukrainians believe that having Nato infrastructure in the country would be a “powerful deterrent”.
However, no such plans have been agreed so far because the UK and other nations are concerned about the risk posed to their troops in Ukraine.
Nato will also be reluctant to deploy troops to an continuing conflict. If they were killed by Russian forces, countries such as the UK could be dragged into the war rapidly, pushing the region closer to a third world war.
Build-up of Ukrainian capability
Others believe that Zelensky will focus on building up the Ukrainian military so it is a formidable fighting force that deters Russia from a future invasion.
Ben Barry, a senior fellow for land warfare at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: “I think what this means is, after the war ends, there has got to be enough Ukrainian forces in Ukraine to deter any Russian attack.”
Barry said this would apply not only to ground forces but also to naval elements and the air force. These would be battle-hardened forces that had already beaten back Russian troops.
However, the Ukrainian military has already been massively stretched, and the new front in Kursk has exacerbated the problem. As a result, Ukraine could decide to lower the minimum conscription age to 18, but would also be likely to ask for more western weapons, such as modern fighter jets.
Larisa Brown is defence editor at The Times. Before joining The Times, her previous roles included Middle East correspondent, based in Lebanon, and defence and security editor, based in Westminster. Larisa has reported from multiple conflict zones, including Syria and Libya, and is a British Journalism Awards Campaign of the Year winner for her work highlighting the plight of Afghan interpreters.