Days before Zelensky is to present his “victory plan” to outgoing US President Biden, Ukrainian soldiers weigh in on what they hope and expect from this crucial moment in Russia’s war.
by Asami Terajima
September 23, 2024
The Kyiv Independent
As President Volodymyr Zelensky kicked off a visit to the U.S. this week in a bid to secure more firepower for his army, Ukrainian soldiers on the ground monitored the news with half-hearted hope, questioning whether Kyiv’s top Western ally would provide enough to help them defeat Russia.
In a historic trip more than two years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, Zelensky is set to present what he describes as Ukraine’s “victory plan” to his American counterpart, Joe Biden. He hopes that if backed by the outgoing U.S. president, it will include the weaponry needed and the lifting of restrictions on deep strikes into Russia using Western missiles.
The Ukrainian leader began the U.S. visit in Scranton, Pennsylvania, Biden’s hometown, at an ammunition factory arming Ukraine’s artillery units with shells. Zelensky is due to travel on to the UN General Assembly in New York and later Washington, D.C.
Thousands of kilometers away on the hottest spots of the front line in Russia’s war against Ukraine, multiple soldiers told the Kyiv Independent that they don’t anticipate notable progress from Zelensky’s efforts to win over Biden but agreed on the importance of pressing Western allies for permission to use their long-range weapons on Russian territory.
The trip comes as Ukrainian forces hold on to a patch of Russia’s Kursk Oblast weeks after conducting a surprise incursion and as Russian troops carried on with a grinding advance in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk Oblast, primarily toward the logistic hub of Pokrovsk, the fall of which would loosen Kyiv’s grip on its last controlled cities in the war-torn industrial region.
“I have no optimistic hopes for Zelensky’s visit to the U.S.,” said infantryman Artem with a battalion fighting in northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, another hotspot along the more than 1,000-kilometer front line in Ukraine that lies south of Kursk Oblast and north of Donetsk Oblast. Artem and other soldiers who spoke to the Kyiv Independent aren’t identified by their full name because they didn’t have authorization from their commanders to speak to the press. “Maybe we will get a few more shells and missiles, and that’s it,” Artem said. “In general, I have the impression that the U.S. does not really want us to defeat Russia. We won’t lose, but we won’t be able to win for a long time,” Artem added. He quipped that it may be “beneficial” for the U.S. to exhaust and weaken Russia for several years rather than give Ukraine what it needs to win the war. He warned that this largely static war could continue for several more years as neither side would have the means to achieve a significant breakthrough on the battlefield.
To compete against a foe with much more troops and heavy weaponry, Ukraine has so far relied on homemade drones to strike Russian military targets—from ammo depots to airfields—deep inside Russia. Hoping to boost the firepower and range of such strikes, Zelensky, with his visit, is set to be the latest European leader in the Western alliance backing Kyiv to nudge Washington into a major decision that would allow Ukrainian troops to aim at Russian targets using precise NATO military alliance missiles.
Ukraine lacks sufficient manpower and resources to change the tide in the eastern Donbas battlefields, where Russian troops have been in a grinding offensive since October 2023 gradually gaining ground. However, Ukrainian soldiers emphasized that weakening Russia by striking targets in the rears would help Ukraine have a chance at a breakthrough in the war. “If we strike at Russia’s rear, then the enemy’s logistics would be depleted, and fewer shells, missiles, equipment, and fuel would be sent to the front from their side,” said infantryman Artem, defending the Kupiansk front. “This would then affect the strength of Russian units on the contact line.” “And over time, we could turn this in our favor and launch counteroffensive operations,” he added.
In a nightly video address on Sept. 21, after a series of long-range drone strikes on Russian weapons depots, Zelensky stressed that “the answer to the question of when this war will end lies in the question of when our partners’ determination will keep pace with what we can do for our defense, for our independence, for our victory.”
U.S. President Joe Biden is “not ruling out” lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons to strike Russian territory, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told Sky News in a September interview.
Though Kyiv’s “victory plan” has not been revealed yet, Foreign Ministry spokesman Heorhii Tykhyi said last week that Zelensky would soon publicly present the proposal that “will strengthen Ukraine, Ukrainian warriors, and Ukrainian people.”
The plan should encompass the complete withdrawal of Moscow’s troops from the Russian-occupied territories in Ukraine, which account for nearly 20% of state turf, and compensation for the damage they caused during the war, said infantryman Serhii with the 79th Separate Assault Brigade in Donetsk Oblast.
Ukrainian soldiers stressed that they critically needed more ammunition shells, drones, air defense missiles, and even basic transport vehicles. Soldier Artem said that a ramped-up supply of first-person-view (FPV) drones would be critical, as it would help Ukraine compensate for its manpower disadvantage.
As the situation on the eastern front line deteriorates daily, Zelensky is due to meet outgoing U.S. president Biden on Sept. 26 at the White House. Zelensky will also hold separate meetings with 2024 presidential candidates Kamala Harris, Biden’s vice president and the Democratic party nominee, and hopes to meet Republican candidate Donald Trump, who seeks re-election. “The President and Vice President (Harris) will emphasize their unshakeable commitment to
stand with Ukraine until it prevails in this war,” Biden’s Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said in a Sept. 19 statement.
Trump, in a recent debate with Harris, refused multiple times to confirm whether he sought Ukraine to defeat Russia in its invasion, insisting that under his watch, the war would never have occurred and that knowing both Zelensky and Russian President Vladimir Putin, he could swiftly negotiate a settlement.
Zelensky’s visit comes days after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer visited Biden urging permission for Ukraine to conduct strikes deep into Russia using Western missiles, including the British-supplied Storm Shadows, which have U.S. components. The Kremlin warned that a decision to lift the restriction would make the West a participant in the conflict.
Before departing for the U.S., Zelensky said at a press conference during European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s visit to Kyiv on Sept. 20 that he hoped for a quick decision from all Western allies to support his “victory plan.” He stressed the importance of the U.S. leadership role in providing Kyiv with the support it needs to win the war, which diplomats have told the Kyiv Independent recently has not been felt strongly.
The permission to use Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia is “an important component of future victory,” said Oleh, a Ukrainian drone operator deployed in Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
Oleh said that this is a war of technology, as it is impossible to compete against Russia with just the manpower in World War I-style trench warfare. “For every one of ours, eight Russians must be killed to equalize the mobilization reserve,” he added.
Stressing that technology will ultimately give Ukraine the upper hand on the battlefield, Oleh said he was optimistic that Zelensky would return home with results. “I hope that Zelensky will reach an agreement (with the U.S.), and we will be given more weapons and be allowed to use them as we need, not as they allow us (now),” Oleh said.
Asami Terajima is a reporter at the Kyiv Independent. She previously worked as a business reporter for the Kyiv Post focusing on international trade, infrastructure, investment and energy. Originally from Japan, Terajima moved to Ukraine during childhood and completed her bachelor’s degree in Business Administration in the U.S. She is the winner of the Thomson Reuters Foundation’s Kurt Schork Award in International Journalism 2023 (Local Reporter category) and the George Weidenfeld Prize, awarded as part of Germany’s Axel Springer Prize 2023. She was also featured in the Media Development Foundation’s “25 under 25: Young and Bold” 2023 list of emerging media makers in Ukraine.