Bogdan Maftei
The Erudite Elders
Sept 20, 2024
In the early hours of Wednesday, 18 September 2024, a series of massive explosions shook Russia’s Tver region, north of Ukraine. Ukrainian drones targeted one of Russia’s largest ammunition depots near the town of Toropets, triggering a catastrophic blast described as the biggest single explosion since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in February 2022. This strike highlights Ukraine’s advancing military capabilities while revealing key weaknesses in Russia’s defense systems. The scale of the explosions in Tver was immense. Eyewitness footage shared widely on social media shows towering plumes of smoke and fire filling the sky, with secondary blasts continuing for more than 30 minutes, suggesting additional munitions stored at the depot were ignited. The primary explosion was so powerful that it created a visible shockwave in the videos, resembling the iconic mushroom cloud of a nuclear blast.
Residents near the blast site felt immediate and severe effects. One man described how the force of the explosion caused his ears to bleed, a clear sign of the extreme pressure from such a massive blast. Buildings in the area were heavily damaged, with windows shattered and walls weakened. The psychological impact on the local population is significant, as the attack brought a new sense of vulnerability, happening far from the frontlines of the war in Ukraine. Seismic data further confirmed the explosion’s scale, with the Norwegian Seismic Array (NORSAR) detecting two earthquakes nearby, registering magnitudes of 2.5 and 2.8 on the Richter scale. These readings are unusual for explosions from conventional weapons and reveal the large amount of munitions involved. The seismic impact of the blast points to the serious blow to Russia’s military assets and raises concerns about the security of its key infrastructure.
To fully grasp the significance of this event, it’s important to understand the strategic value of the Toropets ammunition depot. Located about 470 kilometers from the Ukrainian border and near Latvia, the depot covers over five square kilometers, with a perimeter of more than 12 kilometers. Opened in 2019, it was considered one of Russia’s most advanced and secure military storage sites, equipped with modern concrete storage units designed to safely store a wide range of missiles and ammunition. The depot played a key role in supporting Russia’s military operations, holding high-value munitions critical for both defensive and offensive efforts. Among its stockpiles were S-300 and S-400 surface-to-air missiles, which are central to Russia’s air defense systems. It also stored Iskander ballistic missiles, each weighing around four tons, capable of delivering precise strikes over long distances. Additionally, the facility held recently acquired missiles from North Korea, showcasing Russia’s efforts to enhance its arsenal through international partnerships.
The destruction of this depot is a major blow to Russia’s military efforts. Losing such a large amount of munitions not only reduces available supplies but also disrupts the supply chains needed to support long-term military actions. Since the depot served as a key distribution hub, its
loss could create logistical difficulties for the deployment and resupply of forces across various fronts. Beyond the practical impact, the attack carries symbolic weight as well. It shows that Ukraine can hit critical targets deep within Russian territory, shaking the belief that Russia’s homeland is secure. This could have a demoralizing effect on both Russian troops and civilians, potentially affecting public support for the war.
The successful strike on the Toropets depot highlights Ukraine’s increasing skill in asymmetrical warfare, particularly through its innovative use of drones. Faced with the challenge of fighting a larger and better-equipped opponent, Ukraine has focused on developing strategies that deliver maximum impact while minimizing risk and resource use. Drones have become a key part of Ukraine’s military operations, offering flexibility for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and precision strikes. This ability to hit important targets without risking personnel gives Ukraine a strong tactical edge.
A clear example of Ukraine’s drone capabilities is seen in footage where a drone drops thermite over Russian positions. Thermite, which burns at over 2,200 degrees Celsius, can destroy equipment and fortifications. In one striking video, the fiery descent of thermite reflects off a nearby lake, creating both a powerful visual and a psychological impact. This imagery has resonated globally, showcasing Ukraine’s resourcefulness and technological advances. These advancements aren’t just symbolic – they have real effects on the battlefield. By targeting ammunition depots, command centers, and supply lines, Ukraine disrupts Russia’s operational abilities. The realization that valuable assets deep within Russian territory are vulnerable adds extra pressure on Russian military leaders.
While the dramatic events in the Tver region draw attention, important developments on the ground point to shifting conditions. In eastern Ukraine’s Kupyansk region, Russian forces have launched a counteroffensive aimed at reclaiming lost territory and putting pressure on Ukrainian defenses. However, this effort has faced significant difficulties, revealing flaws in Russia’s strategy and execution. Around 38,000 Russian troops, many of them poorly trained conscripts, moved south from the key town of Kupyansk. Initially, they made some progress, capturing a few villages and forcing Ukrainian forces out of several settlements, gaining about 38 square kilometers of territory. Despite these early advances, the offensive struggled to make a decisive impact, and Ukrainian forces quickly adapted to the changing situation.
In response, Ukraine launched its own counteroffensive, carrying out a strategic flanking maneuver by crossing the border near the village of Novovodyane. This bold action expanded Ukraine’s control by an impressive 191 square kilometers. The key significance of this move is its potential to encircle Russian forces in the area, trapping them between advancing Ukrainian troops and the international border. Military experts suggest that if Ukrainian forces can successfully connect their positions, they could surround thousands of Russian troops, creating a “pocket” with limited escape or resupply options. Such an encirclement would be one of Ukraine’s biggest tactical victories since the start of the war, potentially leading to heavy Russian losses or mass surrenders.
The difficult situation for Russian forces is made worse by logistical challenges. Their supply lines are stretched, and Ukrainian artillery poses a serious threat to their retreat routes. Russian commanders face tough choices: they can attempt a risky breakout, try to negotiate a withdrawal under fire, or risk being encircled and forced to surrender. Adding to Russia’s troubles is the worsening relationship between its troops and the local populations in occupied areas. Frontline reports indicate that Russian soldiers are increasingly facing hostility from civilians, making it harder to maintain control. One telling example comes from Ukrainian soldiers who shared how an elderly woman informed them about twenty Russian soldiers wanting to surrender. Despite being armed, the soldiers were demoralized and had abandoned their positions. This incident highlights the growing civilian resistance and lack of support for Russian forces, even among the people Russia claims to be protecting.
Russian troops have faced accusations of misconduct, including looting, heavy drinking, and general lack of discipline. This behavior not only alienates the local population but also weakens their operational performance. In one case, a Russian S-300 air defense crew, responsible for defending against Ukrainian air attacks, was caught on video drinking vodka with local villagers instead of staying focused on their duties. This lapse allowed Ukrainian drones to penetrate deeper into Russian-held areas, increasing the risks. The combination of low morale, poor discipline, and lack of local support is a serious challenge to Russia’s military goals. Troops in these conditions are less effective, more likely to desert, and struggle to maintain the unity needed for sustained combat.
In response to the growing threat, Russian authorities have taken steps that show serious concerns about the security of border areas. Alexey Starovoyt, the acting governor of the Kursk region, announced the mandatory evacuation of civilians from a 15-kilometer zone in the Rylsk and Korenevo districts. This evacuation covers an area of around 1,100 square kilometers, affecting many towns and villages. Such evacuations are a first in the current war, as Russian leaders have historically been hesitant to admit vulnerabilities or take actions that could be seen as signs of weakness. This move suggests that Russian authorities expect possible Ukrainian incursions or major military activity near the border.
These evacuations carry several implications. Strategically, they may be aimed at clearing the area for military operations without the added complication of civilians. However, they also signal a recognition that security in these regions can no longer be guaranteed. Domestically, such actions could shake public confidence in the government’s handling of the war, possibly weakening support for the military effort. At the same time, Russia is grappling with challenges in maintaining its military operations, especially due to manpower shortages. To address this, President Vladimir Putin recently issued a decree to increase the size of the armed forces by 170,000, bringing the total to about 2,389,000, including 1.5 million servicemen.
Despite the ambitious nature of this expansion, practical obstacles hinder its realization. Recruiting, training, and equipping such a large number of additional troops is a formidable task. Reports suggest that the Russian military is struggling to attract sufficient volunteers, even with increased financial incentives. The allure of substantial pay is mitigated by the risks associated with deployment to active combat zones, where casualty rates are high. Previous mobilization
efforts have had unintended and destabilizing effects. The partial mobilization announced in September 2022 prompted widespread public dissent and a significant exodus of military-age men from Russia. Estimates indicate that around one million men left the country to avoid conscription, many of whom have not returned. This mass departure not only depleted the pool of potential recruits but also impacted the economy, particularly in sectors reliant on skilled labor.
The possibility of another large-scale mobilization poses a tough dilemma for Russian leadership. While more troops are needed to continue operations and cover losses, such a move could provoke further domestic unrest and potentially destabilize the political situation. Balancing these conflicting priorities is a difficult task with no straightforward solutions. Ukraine also faces its own challenges related to manpower and demographics. Confidential estimates suggest that around 50,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed, and another 350,000 wounded since the war began. These numbers represent a significant portion of the country’s military-age population, putting pressure on Ukraine’s ability to maintain an effective fighting force.
The war has caused a massive displacement of civilians, with the United Nations reporting that over six million Ukrainians have fled the country since February 2022. With additional territories under Russian control, the population remaining under Kyiv’s authority has dropped to 30 million people. This demographic shift has serious consequences for Ukraine’s economy, labor force, and long-term social cohesion. Despite these difficulties, Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability. Efficient resource mobilization, along with international support, has allowed the country to continue its defense efforts. The use of innovative tactics, such as advanced drone warfare, demonstrates Ukraine’s focus on making the most of its available resources.
To better grasp the complexities of the current war, it’s helpful to look at historical perspectives on Russian military behavior. Dzhokhar Dudayev, the former president of Chechnya and a Soviet Air Force general, provided valuable insights before his assassination by a Russian missile in 1996. Dudayev described Russia as an “empire of evil,” highlighting its long history of ignoring agreements and international norms. He believed that Russia only entered into agreements when it was in a weak position, with no intention of honoring them once its strength was restored. Dudayev cautioned that unless the world united to challenge Russia’s aggressive actions and enforce international law, serious global instability would follow.
The combined effects of these developments mark a key turning point in the Ukraine-Russia war. Ukraine’s ability to strike deep into Russian territory and successfully counter Russian offensives shows a shift in the strategic balance. These actions challenge the traditional view of Russia’s military superiority and demonstrate how asymmetrical tactics can influence broader outcomes. For Russia, these setbacks call for a reassessment of its strategic goals and operational methods. With manpower shortages, logistical issues, and declining morale, achieving decisive victories has become more difficult. The risk of escalation remains, especially if Russia seeks to regain control through more aggressive actions. International involvement will play a crucial role in shaping the course of the war. Ongoing military and diplomatic support for Ukraine is vital to
maintaining its defense. At the same time, holding Russia accountable for violations of international law and preventing further aggression are key to ensuring global stability.
The Ukraine-Russia war has reached a crucial moment, with recent events highlighting both the opportunities and dangers of modern warfare. The massive explosions in Russia’s Tver region and the shifting frontlines in eastern Ukraine demonstrate the unpredictable nature of 21st-century conflict. Ukraine’s strategic successes showcase the power of innovation, determination, and international support. Its ability to challenge a stronger opponent through unconventional tactics offers valuable lessons that go beyond this specific war. On the other hand, Russia’s difficulties reveal the limits of traditional military strength when faced with an adaptive and determined opposition. The internal pressures caused by the prolonged conflict emphasize the link between military efforts and societal stability. Drawing from figures like Dzhokhar Dudayev and the real-life experiences of those directly affected, it is clear that the actions taken today will shape global politics for years to come. The chance to drive positive change and prevent further escalation is within reach, requiring collective resolve, wisdom, and bold action.