Diane Francis
August 12, 2024
On August 6, the Ukrainian army invaded Russia for the first time in this war, and rolled across its border with state-of-the-art weapons, training, and technology provided by the United States, Germany, and the rest of Europe. The objective was not to occupy territory, or to hold hostage the nuclear plant or the energy hub in its path, but to humiliate Putin, showcase Ukraine’s military superiority, and damage Russia’s military and its morale. It succeeded in meeting these objectives and then some. The Kursk Nuclear Plant, critical to Russia’s grid, was guarded by Chechen special forces who fled immediately, leaving behind a small force of female guards. Ukraine’s invasion also involved Russian defectors and volunteers, and details of its lightning attack were widely broadcast across Russia and the world. Putin was reportedly rattled and said on August 7 the assault was a “major provocation”. But that day, the White House announced the border incursion was not an “escalation”, and promised another $125 million in military aid. It also pledged its “unwavering commitment to Ukraine as they continue to battle back against Russian aggression.”
Kyiv’s “August Surprise” has changed the narrative and is a psychological blow that has left the Evil Empire reeling. So did a report last month that claimed Ukraine had a clear shot to assassinate Putin — and was denied permission by the Pentagon to do so. While disappointing and unverified, it underscores the fact that Putin is not invincible and that Russia is weak.
A federal emergency has been declared by Moscow and the traditionally timid Germans, as well as the European Commission, came out and matched Washington’s response and show of support. An EU spokesman said Ukraine “has a legal right to defend itself, in particular by striking at the aggressor on its territory. The EU continues to fully support Ukraine’s legitimate right to protect against Russian aggression and its efforts to restore sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Even more embarrassing for Putin was that Ukraine’s several hundred troops used American and German Armored Patrol Vehicles (APVs) and took only 24 hours to bust through fortifications in the Kursk region that Moscow had spent 2.5 years and $170 million to build, according to Agentstvo, a Russian investigative website. Besides shaming Russia, the initiative succeeded in meeting one of Ukraine’s main objectives which was to “test drive” its tactics and technology in preparation for future operations. It demonstrated the superiority of Ukraine’s military as well as the Western military assistance being rolled out now following months of delay. The world now awaits the long-awaited debut of dozens of F16s.
Ukraine’s attack also showed off its mastery of electronic warfare capability, say military experts. Its forces were able to jam and disrupt Russian communications and control systems, sowing confusion. The battle also forced Russia to divert troops and equipment from frontlines
in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas to Kursk, thus diluting their overall effectiveness. While such achievements are impressive, the embarrassing dissemination of information about this invasion has dealt the biggest blow of all to the Kremlin. Publicity about the casualties, chaos, destruction, and mass evacuations in Kursk are widespread. Even government mouthpieces on Russian national television appeared gob-smacked and were unable to explain Ukraine’s rapid and surprising occupation. Worse, some Russian military bloggers blamed the debacle on Russian commanders and accused them of criminal incompetence.
In Russia, speculation and anxiety pervade. Russian war correspondent Alexander Sladkov suggested that Ukraine will capture the Kursk nuclear plant in order to obtain the liberation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, occupied by Russian soldiers since 2022. “Otherwise,” he guessed, “they will blow up the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant causing a gigantic catastrophe.” Another propagandist suggested Ukraine might grab the plant in order to “blackmail” the Kremlin into withdrawing all its troops from Ukraine. Still others claim that the energy hub — linking Russian natural gas to European markets — is the target. It could be but it is not. Most Russian natural gas already transits to Europe through Ukrainian pipelines, for which the country is paid $2 billion annually, and could be shut down anytime that Kyiv so ordered. But this has not been done because it would cripple Europe.
A Ukrainian source close to events said seizure of the plant and energy hub were not the goals. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said, in an address to the nation, the purpose was to bring the war to the Russians. “Russia brought the war to our land and should feel what it has done,” he said. “The more pressure there is on Russia, the aggressor who brought war to Ukraine, the closer peace will be. A just peace through just force. I thank all who ensure this.”
Meanwhile on August 11, Zelensky said that Russian forces started a fire in one of the cooling towers of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine. “Radiation levels are within norm,” he said, adding that its six reactors are shutdown “to blackmail Ukraine, all of Europe, and the world.” Some suggest the fire and threat at this plant may be Moscow’s attempt to raise the stakes concerning the Kursk invasion and bring it to a halt.
But Ukraine has gained some military advantage with this foray. It can now disrupt Russian supply lines along the northern front near Kharkiv to protect the city from another invasion attempt as occurred in May. Ukrainians have also taken dozens of prisoners who can be traded for their own imprisoned soldiers. The Kursk assault has also demoralized Russians and boosted the morale of Ukrainians. Kyiv clearly intends to continue to maximize damage to Russian troops, equipment, energy infrastructure, and supply chains. And an unforeseen benefit, in the case of Kursk, is that the breach reveals the cracks on the other side. The Chechen special forces abandoned the nuclear plant in Kursk — an act of cowardice that will sour relations between Putin and Chechnya warlord, Ramzan Kadyrov, an ally that Putin has relied on during the war.
The bold move also strengthens Ukraine’s alliance. Notably, a prominent German lawmaker, Marcus Faber, chairman of the German Parliament’s defense committee and member of the country’s coalition government, spoke for many fellow citizens when he wholeheartedly backed Kyiv’s aggression as well as the use of German weapons inside Russia. “With the Russian
invasion of Ukraine, the territory of both states became the war zone. With the transfer of German weapons to Ukraine, they became Ukrainian weapons,” he said.
So far, Kyiv’s audacity has paid off. Its drone capability is second to none and is driving Russia out of Crimea and damaging its fossil fuel trade. The country has the backing of its allies, the F-16 fighter jets will decimate Russia’s ground forces and protect Ukraine’s cities, and Ukraine is training 15 new battalions in order to mount a major counteroffensive to expel the marauders from their nation. A protectionist President appears unlikely to seize the White House and Ukraine proves that Putin is far from infallible.