Ukrainian forces have continued to push deeper into Russia, further signaling this operation wasn’t a short raid but rather a potential occupation.
By Isabelle Khurshudyan and Anastacia Galouchka
August 10, 2024
The Washington Post
KYIV — Ukraine’s surprise invasion of Russia stretched into a fifth day Saturday in what analysts and Western officials said increasingly looked like a prolonged operation to divert Russian forces, raising questions about Kyiv’s ultimate aim as its forces pushed deeper into Russia’s Kursk region.
The move has turned the tables on Moscow, which invaded Ukraine more than two years ago, and has been a morale boost for Ukrainian forces after Russia previously gained the strategic initiative on the battlefield. It could also be used as leverage in potential negotiations with Moscow to end the fighting, analysts said. “It’s not a raid, this is something different,” said Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defense minister and chairman of Ukraine’s Center for Defense Strategies, an independent think tank. “It’s not a question about staying there forever or for a long time, it’s an issue of trying to stretch out their forces,” he added. “I doubt that Ukraine’s leadership has these plans to occupy Russian territory and to hold it indefinitely.”
Though Ukrainian officials have repeatedly declined to comment on the assault, their soldiers fighting in Russia have started posting more videos and photos to social media that purport to show them in Kursk and, most recently, in a second Russian border region, Belgorod.
The military has otherwise adopted what is being referred to as a “regime of silence” for operational security — a tactic Kyiv used during its counteroffensive in Kharkiv in 2022.
Fighters from Ukraine’s 252nd Territorial Defense Battalion recorded a video, shared Saturday, standing outside a building identified as the village club in Poroz — a settlement in Russia’s Belgorod region less than two miles from the border. The Washington Post could not immediately verify the video’s authenticity or when it was recorded. With no other reports of Ukrainian units in the Belgorod region, Russian military analysts and pro-war bloggers claimed the video was probably an orchestrated diversionary tactic to confuse Russian forces. But it was yet another development celebrated by ordinary Ukrainians happy to see the Russians get a taste of their own medicine.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin on Saturday announced heightened security measures in border areas — a sign of Moscow’s growing insecurity. Whatever the endgame of Ukraine’s incursion into Russia, it has succeeded as a narrative-shifting lift for Kyiv. Instead of lamenting Russia’s advances on the eastern front every day, Ukrainians are eagerly monitoring — and snickering at — the news of their troops pushing deeper and deeper into Russia’s Kursk region, which borders
Ukraine’s Sumy region. “War is always a contest of wills, and morale is obviously intrinsically linked,” said Franz-Stefan Gady, a Vienna-based military analyst. “This is definitely one consideration that it is really a signal to the West and to Ukrainian allies and partners that Ukraine is still capable of launching offensive operations, that Ukraine is capable of conducting fairly complex operations into enemy territory.”
A Western diplomat in Kyiv, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter, echoed that sentiment. After months of declining support and interest from Western partner countries, Ukraine has seized the spotlight again, the diplomat said. “Ukraine is showing the world that the country is able to fight back,” the official said. “This operation is perfect timing before the U.S. election to put this conflict back on the map.”
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, speaking in a taped meeting with officials on Saturday, claimed that Ukrainian forces had advanced about 20 miles into Russia. Lukashenko also said without evidence that Ukrainian “targets” had violated Belarusian airspace Friday night, prompting the military to shoot them down. The Post has not been able to verify either claim. The Belarusian Defense Ministry said it will send forces to its border with Ukraine as a defensive measure.
Several Ukrainian mechanized and assault units appear to be part of the offensive into Russia’s Kursk, meaning Kyiv has probably pulled thousands of soldiers off the battlefield in eastern Ukraine, where Russian forces had been gaining ground. Gady said they’ve continued that trend during the Ukrainian offensive this week.
Analysts have said Ukraine’s military could be maneuvering to divert Russian forces from other parts of the front line in eastern Ukraine. But Ukraine then also risks shifting more of its soldiers from the tense defense there, and the quantity of reserves Russia uses to counter the assault on its territory might not outweigh the Ukrainian force committed. And if Ukraine intends to occupy this Russian territory for an extended period, that will also require a significant number of troops to stay put. “It remains to be seen whether Russia is going to commit any resources at all from sectors on the Ukrainian front line to contain this assault,” Gady said. “There is some indication that Russia has already started fighting back with regular formations, but it’s unclear yet.” He added that it’s possible that the Ukrainian military might entrench in the territory it has moved through so far, forcing a Russian counterattack that could draw more personnel and give Ukraine a favorable attrition ratio.
Though Kyiv’s ramped-up mobilization campaign has conscripted tens of thousands of men per month this summer, not all of those reinforcements have reached the battlefield, as they have to complete training.
Ukrainian officials have said bringing the war to Russia and making its civilians experience the same displacement and bombardment that Ukrainians have for the past two years will place pressure on President Vladimir Putin and improve Kyiv’s position in future negotiations to end the war.
Though Russian officials have claimed that the Ukrainian advance has been halted, Moscow announced a “counterterrorism operation” on Saturday for three regions along Ukraine’s border. That entails heightened security, such as the ability to forcibly resettle civilians, check documents and vehicles, and monitor calls. Authorities can also restrict internet access and limit communications.
The Western diplomat said that “before the operation, Ukraine had nothing to negotiate.” “Now it is different,” the person said.
Isabelle Khurshudyan is a foreign correspondent based in Kyiv. A University of South Carolina graduate, she has worked at The Washington Post since 2014, previously as a correspondent in the Moscow bureau and as a sports reporter covering the Washington Capitals. Twitter