The Russian Belgorod or the Kursk regions are ethnically and historically Ukrainian regions. Most recently the residents accepted the Ukrainian flag with the words, whatever, as long as we are safe. Ukraine has downplayed the event. Russia has manifested some concern, but with customary bravado and threats. The United States has approved the incursion as being within the limitations imposed on US arms. What are the short and long term implications?
Frankly, who knows. Anyone who suggests that he/she knows is simply guessing. This is the second or third of many such attacks to come. Or perhaps, Russia will better defend its territory. In any event the obvious consensus would have to be that Russia is very vulnerable.
The myth about Russia is much greater than reality. It is, in part based on Russian arrogant behaviour internationally as well as fear that Russia is the world’s second largest nuclear power. The question that must be asked is whether that matters. Any answer would be a guess. Would Russia solicit a nuclear Armageddon with initial use?
In any event the only solution to the current war is the dissolution of the Russian Empire, leaving behind only a Russian state with clearly defined borders. That Russia would not be a global threat. It would be surrounded by many nations that in the past had experienced Russian brutality and therefore would impose a mandate upon their new governments to arm to the teeth against any possible Russian revenge.
“Realpolitik” is the real issue here, because that concept has an entirely new meaning. Nothing is possible unless you have tried it. On February 24, 2022 the global community gave Ukraine at most a week to stand up to Russia. We are now two and one half years beyond this week and Russia has achieved only little new territory, with missiles and drones raining over Crimea.
Aside from the Ukrainian resistance a number of other phenomena have manifested themselves. NATO has expanded and become stronger at the very least in the sense that at least twice as many members of NATO are now expending more than 2% of their GDP on military matters.
Germany, a traditionally friendly country to Russia under Angela Merkle, albeit not an ally has experienced an epiphany with a leadership consisting of a left wing coalition of Social democrats and Greens. France, traditionally, at best often an isolated country until it hurts French interests, has been in the forefront of resistance to Russian aggression, suggesting even boots on Ukrainian ground. The only two NATO members resisting full support for Ukraine are essentially irrelevant Hungary with a madman at the helm and Slovakia with a budding madman. Similarly to the European Union, at NATO motions will fly to disenfranchise Prime Ministers Orban and Fifo.
And then there is a budding movement of enslaved nations within the Russian Federation itself, organizing structures and united in their efforts to bring down the Russian empire: the Free Nations League, the Anti-Imperialism Bloc of Nations, the Americans Against Russian Imperialism and others. These nations include in part: the Bashkirs, the Buryats, the Tatars, the
Kalmyks, the Erzya, the Circassians and others. In their manifestos these nations no longer speak of autonomy within some some type of federation with the Russians. They speak only of independence.
It is a different world. “Realpolitik” as we knew it, has become an anachronism or has acquired a different meaning. Seeking a lasting diplomatic solution with the Russian Empire is the furthest removed from being a realistic solution to the current war. All empires eventually fall because people in general, perhaps, even the Russians want individual freedoms. Maintaining an empire is a difficult chore, requiring sacrifice not only from oneself, but one’s dear ones, including the sacrifice of life.
The strongest weapon on the side of freedom is transparency (that term was called “glasnost” in the ebbing days of Soviet Russia under Gorbachev), via the Internet, the cell phone, etc. Almost everything can be viewed on screen globally. The Czar or the Commissar never had to address those realities. What about Russian presidents? That title “president” in a real sense is entirely foreign to Russians but they will have to adjust. Czar, commissar or emperor are anachronisms.
August 10, 2024 Askold Lozynskyj